Eagles

The Eagles used running back motion, the wheel route, and the mesh concept repeatedly to take advantage of the Patriots decision to predominantly play man to man coverage. The Patriots were weak against pass catching running backs all year, particularly wheel routes. In the AFC Championship, Jacksonville missed their opportunity multiple times to hit an open running back against a linebacker or peeling defensive end; but the Eagles cashed in.

2nd Quarter, 1:46, 3rd & 3 on Phi 37 (Phi 15 NE 12)

Late in the first half, the Eagles make a huge play using both the mesh concept and the wheel route. Defensively, the Patriots are in Cover 1:

The Patriots have it covered well, but Jordan Richards (#37) takes a bad angle on the wheel route, leading to an easy throw for a huge gain. The angle below shows Richards could have gone over the sit route and been in position to make a tackle before the first down marker, instead of shooting underneath. Of course, if Malcolm Butler was on the field, Richards probably wouldn’t have been:

This won’t be the first time the Eagles use these concepts to beat the Patriots D. In fact, this particular play ends up being key for a fourth down conversion late in the game.

3rd Quarter, 7:25, 3rd & 6 on NE 22 (Phi 22 NE 19)

In the middle of the third, the Eagles use return motion as a coverage indicator; once #59 linebacker Marquis Flowers motions in with running back Corey Clement, Nick Foles knows its man to man coverage. The Eagles are running a drive concept with Clement’s wheel route behind it from the backfield. The Patriots are playing man to man with a free safety in centerfield. They are also doubling Zach Ertz; (#37) Jordan Richards has any in breaking routes, while (#32) Devin McCourty has any out breaking routes:

The Eagles end up getting a speedy running back on a linebacker. Foles has plenty of time  and delivers perhaps his best throw of the day for a touchdown. Meanwhile, the free safety is too far to make an impact on the wheel, and McCourty hesitates ever so slightly, flips his hips the wrong way, and is unable to make a play on the ball:

4th Quarter, 6:10, 4th & 1 on Phi 45 (NE 33 Phi 32)

The Eagles wouldn’t have had the opportunity for the go-ahead touchdown had it not been for a fourth down conversion in their own territory earlier in the drive. Earlier in the game, the Eagles gashed the Patriots with two huge passes to running back Corey Clement, analyzed above. The Eagles come back to the mesh concept on this critical fourth down. The Patriots are in man to man coverage, middle linebacker Kyle Van Noy blitzes, safety Duron Harmon is a “robber” in the box, and outside linebacker James Harrison has peel responsibility if the running back has a route. The Eagles mesh works perfectly, and Ertz is able to get free:

However, Patriots safety Duron Harmon is still in great position to make a play on Ertz. This is where the Eagles previous success on wheel routes to Clement comes into play; Harmon hesitates ever so slightly to the wheel, leaving enough space for Foles to complete the ball to Ertz for a crucial first down.

4th Quarter, 2:25, 3rd & 7 on NE 11 (NE 33 Phi 32)

On perhaps the most important play of Super Bowl 52, Pederson used motion to out-formation the Patriots and get exactly the matchup he was looking for: tight end Zack Ertz in 1 on 1 coverage. Pre-snap, the Eagles come out in bunch trips right, running back Corey Clement offset left, and Ertz wide left. The Patriots are playing man-to-man on the trips, but importantly, safety Duron Harmon can help Devin McCourty, currently lined up on Ertz, and take away any in breaking route. The Patriots would handle Clement out of the backfield with James Harrison peeling off to the flat:

However, when Clement fast motions from the backfield to the trips, the Patriots are completely outflanked and Harmon is forced to match him. This leaves McCourty on an island with Ertz at the very last second, and the rest is history:

While Pederson called a near perfect game, Josh McDaniels was just as good. The Patriots, more than any other team, use movement before the snap as coverage indicators. Super Bowl 52 was no exception:

Patriots

1st Quarter, 1:41, 3rd & 7 on NE 21

Before the snap, the Patriots motion in James White to the backfield. By this time, the Patriots know the Eagles are matching up safety Malcolm Jenkins (#27) with White. Jenkins follows White, but the Eagles could still plausibly be in a variety of coverages. The Patriots go one step further and have receivers Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks switch places. When the Eagles defenders don’t move, Tom Brady knows its zone coverage:

A side note, most analysts expected Malcolm Jenkins to match up with Gronk. Given that James White had 14 catches in Super Bowl 51 and Shane Vereen had 11 catches in Super Bowl 49, it made sense that the Eagles decided they’d try to limit James White. The move was effective; after the first drive White didn’t have a single catch.

2nd Quarter, 2:55, 2nd & 10 on NE 31

Down 15-6 with just under 3 minutes in the first half, the Patriots get a one on one matchup they unquestionably circled before the game; Eagles cornerback #31 Jalen Mills in man to man off coverage. Mills has struggled with double moves in this scenario throughout the year, (top of screen in first clip, bottom of screen in second clip):

This time is no different. Chris Hogan is matched up with Jalen Mills at the bottom of the screen, in off coverage, with no deep half help. He runs a curl and go for a huge gain:

3rd Quarter, 3:29, 1st & 10 on Phi 26

Down 10, the Patriots began the second half by attacking with seam routes. They also took advantage of a bit of confusion in alignment; in the NFC Championship game, when a non-pass catching back (Latavius Murray) split out wide, the Eagles were confused and gave up a wide open touchdown:

Below, Patriots fullback James Develin is highlighted at the top of the screen. When he lines up out wide, the Eagles are confused on coverage assignments. Meanwhile, the play call is double seams with Gronkowski and Hogan:

This becomes a big play because of three factors: First, the Eagles pre-snap confusion causes Malcolm Jenkins (free safety, highlighted above) to keep his eyes solely on Gronkowski as opposed to playing deep middle. Next, Tom Brady’s eyes hold Jenkins toward Gronkowski’s side. Watch Brady’s eyes flip to Hogan just before the throw. Third, Chris Hogan expands his seam route to the wide side of the field, creating more room for the throw:

Finally, it’s impossible to do a full review of Super Bowl 52 without mentioning “Philly Special,” the throwback pass the Eagles used to score right before the end of the first half:

Shot 13 – “Philly Special” … one of the most legendary moments in Philly Sports History. So much to love about this play….the design, the call, the timing, the execution. Foles reels in the TD from Trey Burton #FlyEaglesFly #SBLII pic.twitter.com/VU0zg76dKV

— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) February 7, 2018

It was a great play call and design, but there’s more: the Patriots ran the same play the last time they played the Eagles in 2015:

“Philly Special” 2015 Pats vs Eagles. We’ve seen this before. pic.twitter.com/KRmhYG55ld

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) February 8, 2018

It may have been in the playbook already, but it’s also possible Philly added it specifically for this game after reviewing that film. For those looking to add this play to the playbook, make sure you know the rules; in the NFL, the quarterback must be in the shotgun, or he is not eligible to catch a pass. There is no such rule in college:

Now Baker Mayfield is out here catching TDs too pic.twitter.com/S3esgz4L9s

— 2018 NFL Draft (@DraftRT) January 1, 2018

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Accuracy

Garoppolo was once again up and down with accuracy. On a 3rd and 2 on the first drive of the game, Aaron Dobson is open for a first down on a quick out route, but Garoppolo misses behind him.

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These types of misses will result in interceptions in the regular season. However, just like the first preseason game, Garoppolo bounced back and improved his accuracy throughout the game. A 2nd quarter out throw to Martellus Bennett is exactly where the ball needs to be on this type of plays:

Progression

Garoppolo continued to work through his progression and find 3rd and 4th options for completions as opposed to locking onto only one option. This will be a critical skill in the regular season. Here, Garoppolo looks off several reads before finding Chris Hogan and A.J Derby for substantial gains twice during the 2-minute drill :

Pocket Presence & Footwork

Garoppolo took a bad sack on the first drive of the first preseason game because he failed to climb the pocket and step up when he needed to. This past week Garoppolo stepped up with excellent footwork to buy himself time, kept his eyes downfield, and found an open receiver on multiple occasions:

Below is the end zone angle showing the same footwork to climb the pocket:

Decision Making

Garoppolo had his fair share of poor decisions in the first preseason game, whether it was failing to throw the ball away or throwing the ball back across the middle late. He made one bad decision almost resulting in an interception in the second game:

However, he did not take sacks where he should have thrown the ball away and was also able to process the defense quickly and make an instant decision when there was an extra rusher and the coverage vacated:

Overall, Garoppolo was better in the second preseason game. He made fewer bad decisions and more positive plays. Graroppolo has shown ability to go through progressions and make reads, but still needs to be more consistent with his accuracy.

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WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The Colts are almost a new team on the offensive side of the ball; since the 42-20 loss to New England, Boom Herron (#36) has replaced Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at Running Back, Donte Moncrief (#10) has emerged as a go to Wide Receiver, Tight End Dwayne Allen (#83) is healthy, and future Hall of Fame WR Reggie Wayne (#87) has become severely hampered with a torn triceps and hobbled groin. Additionally, the Colts have swapped and replaced two new offensive lineman into the mix.

The Colts did an excellent job last week of protecting Andrew Luck against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, while the Patriots pass rush was abysmal against the Ravens, recording 0 sacks on 45 pass attempts. The Colts do not have a strong running game, so look for them to spread it out in Empty formations and use QB Andrew Luck as a run threat. The Patriots can counter this and improve their pass rush by using DE/LB Akeem Ayers (#55) more often. Ayers only played one snap against the Ravens, but this is because the Patriots stayed in base defense to counter the Ravens zone run offense. The Patriots will almost certainly be in Nickel/Sub-Packages more often this week and use Ayers as pass rusher as well as a coverage linebacker.

One of the most telling signs of New England’s defensive game-plan will be how Brandon Browner is used. Browner was hobbled with a knee injury last week, and was beat several times by the Ravens’ Torrey Smith. In the Week 11 matchup against the Colts, Browner spent plenty of time covering Browner, with poor results. It could be a big mistake to have Browner cover Fleener or Moncrief, as both looked like they could easily get open against Browner (Browner is matched up on the bottom of the screen both times):

Instead, it would probably be best to use Browner on Wide Receivers/Tight Ends who are less shifty in space, such as Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Allen caught a TD last week while boxing out Denver’s Aqib Talib, and Browner is the best match up to prevent this from happening.

In the Week 11 game, Darrelle Revis almost exclusively matched up against Reggie Wayne. With Wayne hobbled, it will likely be another Patriots Defensive Back. (Probably #26 Logan Ryan). Revis will be used in two ways throughout the game: On T.Y. Hilton, or on Donte Moncrief. When Revis is not on Hilton, expect the speedy Kyle Arrington (#25) to cover Hilton with some sort of Safety help.

Finally, expect the Colts to attack the Patriots Cover 1/Cover 3 schemes and preventing press coverage by bunching Receivers and using motion & crossing routes, as the Colts had some success with this in Week 11, and the Ravens certainly had success with this strategy last week:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots played a whopping 37 snaps in Week 11 with a 6th offensive lineman. The results were uncanny, with Jonas Gray running for over 200 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Expect New England to run the ball with success, but not nearly as much, for a few reasons: Colts DT Arthur Jones is back from an injury, and Patriots Center Bryan Stork is out with a knee injury this week. This shuffle on the offensive and defensive lines will make it less easy for New England to run the ball all over Indy.

Instead, expect New England to attack the Colts aggressive man-to-man defense more through the air this time around. Colts Safety Laron Landry (#30) matched up with Denver’s Julius Thomas last week. Patriots Rob Gronkowski is a tougher cover than Thomas, and the Patriots can exploit the matchup like the Broncos did:

Because of the Colts affinity for man coverage and blitzing, look for Patriots RB Shane Vereen (#34) to get loose on a big gain in the passing game. The Broncos had a perfect opportunity by aligning the Tight End and Running Back together at the top of the screen, but somehow Peyton Manning misses a wide open Running Back on the wheel route:

If Gronkowski is split out wide, the Patriots love the hitch route against off coverage. However, if the Colts play press coverage with Landry like they did against Denver, the Patriots will certainly look to cash in by pairing Landry and a Linebacker in coverage against Vereen and Gronkowski.

Colts Cornerback Vontae Davis (#21) also is a key player on the Colts Defense to watch for. Davis played an excellent game last week and shut down both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas at times. Expect him to match up against both Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, depending on down and distance. He could also occasionally be used to cover Gronkowski, but the Colts must be careful with this matchup, as Gronkowski is a viable run blocker. Tom Brady could see this matchup and check to a run play, leaving  Vontae Davis in the box against a lineman. The play below shows exactly why Shane Vereen may be the one in for a big game: He can play off how the Colts decide to treat Gronkowski and benefit in both the passing and running attack.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL 

In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.

Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary

The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.

With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:

When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:

While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.

The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).

As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).

One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.

 WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL 

The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).

Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):

However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:

The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:

If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:

Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.

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