WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

The zone run game has given the Patriots problems, most recently against Baltimore in the Divisional Round (24 carries for 129 yards). While Seattle primarily runs zone, they use more inside zone and cut defensive lineman less efficiently. Most teams who run the football well have a dominant offensive line; but this isn’t the case for Seattle. Marshawn Lynch’s “beast mode” runs overshadow the fact that the Seahawks offensive line isn’t overly powerful or big.

The Seahawks will likely see a variety of Front-7 looks from the Patriots, including a true 3-4, with Vince Wilfork (#75) playing a 0 technique, Alan Branch (#97) and Sealver Siliga (#96) at Defensive End, Rob Ninkovich (#50) and Chandler Jones (#95) at Outside Linebacker, and Jamie Collins (#91) and Dont’a Hightower (#54) at Inside Linebacker. Look for (#55) Akeem Ayers to also play some outside linebacker in this look. This defensive front gives both teams advantages: While the 3-4 gives the Patriots both athleticism and versatility with 4 linebackers as well as over 1,000 pounds of stout mass on the defensive line against the run, it undoubtedly sacrifices the ability to get any pass rush against Russell Wilson.

The chess game will be particularly important when the Seahawks are in the Shotgun. Because the zone read such a dangerous threat, how the Patriots respond to it will be crucial to the outcome of the game. Expect the Patriots to take away Russell Wilson on the zone read and make him hand the ball off nearly every time. The first way this can be done is the feather technique. Below is an example of the feather technique, where the last defender on the line of scrimmage (#58 Thomas Davis) makes Russell Wilson hand the ball off by slow playing the read. Meanwhile, all the defensive lineman rip to their right hard, making all gaps accounted for. Once Marshawn Lynch has the ball, Davis can fill in the last gap for a one yard gain. (This is against a 4-6 Bear look, which the Seahawks may also see.)

The problem with feathering or slow playing the Zone Read is that it can leave the last defender on the line of scrimmage in a passive position. It also leaves him susceptible to concepts, such as split zone (seen below) that look like zone read, but take advantage of the feather technique’s passiveness:

What the Patriots could also do is aggressively take away the QB run option from Russell Wilson by flying fast downhill and making Wilson make a read quickly. Below isn’t the same exact type of play, (Counter vs. Zone) but Terrell Suggs (#55 on Baltimore) shows how playing fast downhill at the Quarterback can disrupt plays as the unblocked last defender on the line of scrimmage:

Seattle could respond to this type of approach from the Patriots by moving to a double tight end set, making it more difficult for the defense to keep a defender outside of the Tight End, and making it more difficult to play the zone read aggressively. The look below gives Seattle 9 in the box against Carolina’s 7, and the Defensive End let’s Wilson get outside because he does not attack Russell Wilson’s outside shoulder:

With respect to the passing game, expect Darrelle Revis to match up primarily with Doug Baldwin and follow him around the field. Brandon Browner will likely cover Jermaine Kearse (#15) for some of the game, but also expect designated T.Y. Hilton stopper (#25) Kyle Arrington to get some time matched up against the speedy Kearse with Safety help. When Arrington is on Kearse, this could leave Browner to cover speedy Seahawk Tight End Luke Willson (#82).

The Seattle passing game vs. the Patriots secondary isn’t necessarily about X’s and O’s, but a game of attrition: the Patriots will likely sell out to the stop the run and try and contain Russell Wilson instead of outright rushing him. The Patriots secondary is able to cover for long periods of time, while Russell Wilson is excellent extending plays and finding open Wide Receivers. This is a strength on strength, and will likely decide the game: who can win the scramble drill– will New England be able to cover when Wilson extends the play, or will his Receivers find a way to get open?

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The combination of two weeks to prepare and the simplicity of Seattle’s Defensive scheme should make for an interesting New England game plan. The 2012 Patriots vs. Seahawks game featured almost 60 throws for Tom Brady, a ton of empty formations and almost 400 yards passing (The most Seattle has given up in the Legion of Boom era). New England had success throwing underneath with various schemes including their Y-stick and slant/flat combinations.

On the other hand, if Seattle’s defense has any vulnerability, it’s that the Front 7 is slightly undersized and built on speed. New England could run right at the Seattle defense, as all of Seattle’s losses this season had their opponents rushing for 100 or more yards.

Overall, I anticipate New England will implement aspects of both game plans depending on down + distance and field position. Expect New England to swing back and forth between Empty sets and Power and Iso looks with multiple tight ends and Fullback James Develin (#46) isolated on Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (#54). Running the ball will also test Seahawks All-Pro Safety Earl Thomas (#29) injured shoulder. Because Seattle plays so simple schematically, New England could attack and keep Seattle off balance by making the Seahawks defend two completely different styles of football. It also gives the Patriots flexibility to adjust to the scoreboard.

Seattle’s elite pass defense has struggled against a few concepts this year, including Post-Wheel, Switch Verticals, and Seams paired with out and ups:

Courtesy of Matt Bowen (Bleacher Report)

These concepts all have something in common: It exploits the ultra aggressive nature of Seattle’s Cover 3, where Cornerbacks match vertical releases and essentially play man-to-man after 10 yards and also try to undercut seam routes. This puts immense pressure on the linebackers to carry wheel routes and double moves. Of course, Seattle will be well aware of this weakness. In order for New England to take advantage of it, the Patriots could include a play action wrinkle to freeze linebackers, as well as use Rob Gronkowski as a decoy. The play below is a perfect example: The top of the screen features Gronk running a seam route while Tight End Tim Wright (#81) runs a wheel route and is also wide open. If this type of play action can freeze linebackers, and Gronk draws the attention of the Deep 1/3 corner, the Patriots could find huge plays up the sideline:

The Patriots could also attack the seams, but must set up Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola underneath first. The Patriots certainly looked to the San Diego vs. Seattle tape for hints on how to attack Seattle. Many point to Antonio Gates 3 Touchdowns that day, but Danny Woodhead and Eddie Royal had 11 catches that day and provided crucial 3rd down conversions. In the 2012 Seattle/New England game Wes Welker came up with 10 catches for 138 yards and a TD. (Precedent for smaller, shiftier receivers succeeding against Seattle). The following play is a great example of how New England can isolate the Tight End via the Dakota formation, attack the seams, but also open up a versatile running back underneath for a big gain:

If the Patriots can get Earl Thomas and Cam Chancellor to come up to play the underneath routes from Vereen, Edelman, and Amendola, they will be able to attack the seams. In the play below, Safety Cam Chancellor freezes up for just a split second to cover Panthers Running Back Jonathan Stewart (#28) out of the back field, opening up the seam behind him:

Finally, as I’ve wrote about before, the Seahawks seem to move Richard Sherman inside to the slot when they feel the biggest receiving threat is there:

New England can find out early in the game if the Seahawks will move around Richard Sherman by putting Shane Vereen or Rob Gronkowski on the outside with Julian Edelman in the slot. What they will do with this matchup depends on if Edelman can beat Sherman consistently. This will be especially interesting given Sherman’s arm injury.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One interesting statistic of note: Seattle Punter Jon Ryan allowed the lowest number of punts returned this year, while Julian Edelman lead the league with 19.3 yards per return. Look for this strength vs. strength match up to be a key factor in field position and impact the game in a big way.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL 

In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.

Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary

The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.

With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:

When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:

While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.

The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).

As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).

One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.

 WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL 

The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).

Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):

However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:

The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:

If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:

Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.

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