2nd Quarter, 4:06, 2nd & Goal at the 6:

On all 3 Touchdowns in the four Tight End set, #88 Scott Chandler is paired with #87 Rob Gronkowski (the pass catchers), while #47 “Hooman” is paired with #85 Mike Williams. The first time the Steelers see the formation, their Front 7 is in Bear with 2 Safeties and 2 Cornerbacks in man to man coverage behind it. The Patriots check to a stretch play action  2 man route with Gronkowski running a seam route and Chandler expanding to the back pylon:

Gronk is able to beat his man, who is frozen by a stretch play action. Steelers Safety Mike Mitchell (#23) attempts to peel back to Gronkowski after his man stays in protection, but is too late. Below are the End Zone and Field angles of the Touchdown:

3rd Quarter, 11:17, 2nd & Goal at the 1:

The second time New England comes out with four Tight Ends, the Steelers respond with their Goal Line personnel, with only 1 Defensive Back on the field. To start, #88 Scott Chandler is in the backfield as a Fullback. Prior to the snap, #47 Hooman shifts out wide to the right, taking the only Steeler Defensive Back with him. From there, Gronkowski and Chandler shift to the left:

With only 1 Defensive Back on the field, the Steelers shift out 2 linebackers to match up man to man with Gronkowski and Chandler. This is a mismatch Tom Brady will exploit 100% of the time. On the second TD from the four tight end set, the Patriots run a Slant-Flat combination:

Below is the Field All-22 angle for the 2nd Touchdown:

4th Quarter, 9:28, 3rd & Goal at the 1:

On the final four tight end play of the night, the Patriots start with the same shift as the prior Touchdown. The Steelers respond with the same exact personnel grouping. From the 1 yard line, there isn’t much choice but to play this type of heavy personnel. However, going forward, it will be interesting to see how opposing defenses match up with the four Tight End look from the 5 or 10 yard line. This time, the Patriots run a fade to Gronkowski for his 3rd TD of the night (with Chandler once again running to the flat):

Chess Match Going Forward

Future Patriots opponents have this tape to watch and may approach the four Tight End set differently. The first thing the defense could do is match linebackers to #47 Hooman and #85 Mike Williams side, while keeping better pass defenders (Safeties) on to Gronkowski’s side. Personnel choice will be key; is the best way to match up 3 Safeties to counter four Tight Ends? Teams will certainly live with either Hooman or Williams beating them in the pass game. Defenses can also counter by moving an extra defender out to make it 3 defenders over Chandler and Gronkowski. In Week 1, the Steelers covered all Tight Ends who shifted out with man to man coverage:

Bringing out an another defender toward Gronk/Chandler would help the pass defense, but would help the Patriots run game near the Goal Line immensely by lightening the box to 7 vs. 7. Defenses may choose this strategy inside the 10 yard line and dare the Patriots to run the ball in the red zone with a young offensive line.

The Patriots likely have only shown the tip of the iceberg with respect to the four Tight End, or “Aces” formation. Look for them to have several formational and motion variations as well as run a variety of plays from the personnel grouping. This formation may only have come about when Fullback James Develin was lost for the season, allowing for the coaching staff to come up with creative ways to use Tight Ends in the red zone.

If defenses do over commit to the pass against “Aces”, New England could split out Gronk and Scott Chandler to different sides of the formation as 6’6″+ fade targets. The Patriots could also put defenses in a bind by having Chandler, Hooman, and Williams to one side as a run heavy side with Gronk split out wide on the opposite side. This would force defenses to commit numbers to the run heavy side or leave Gronk 1 on 1. Either way, I look forward to the four Tight End look being used by New England in the red zone throughout the season.

WEEK 2 UPDATE

The Patriots cashed in again on the Goal Line with their 4 TE set week 2 against the Bills. Below, the Patriots show a similar shift causing confusion in the Bills secondary. This time, Gronkowski runs a short Dig route, with Chandler running a pivot. Gronkowski finds himself open in the back of the end zone:

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Later in the game, the Patriots go back to the 4 TE set on the Goal Line, this time separating Chandler and Gronkowski to opposite sides. Gronkowski is double teamed on the bottom, and the Patriots get the 1 on 1 matchup they want, but the Bills break up the play:

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Week 5 Update

The Patriots have traded away Tight End #47 Michael Hoomanawanui to the Saints. If the Patriots continue the 4 TE set, look for Tackle #77 Nate Solder to play as a TE on the goal line, as he played some TE in college and was used as an extra lineman/TE his rookie year.

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The Patriots Super Bowl 49 game plan began as expected, with New England lining up Tight End Rob Gronkowski extremely far out wide in order to see how Seattle would respond. The Patriots then motioned Julian Edelman across to the slot. This first play would give New England a ton of coverage information for a Touchdown later in the game:

Seattle occasionally moved Richard Sherman into the slot when they felt the Offense’s biggest threat was there, or when either a Tight End or Running back was the furthest outside Receiver. By lining up Gronk out extra wide and motioning Edelman, the Patriots were able to gather information even before running a play. First, the Patriots knew the Seahawks were willing to play against Gronk and the wide side of the field with only one defender, as deep 1/3 defender Kam Chancellor (Safety #31) is essentially in the middle of the field. The Patriots also see the Seahawks Cover 3 “Buzz” or Cover 1 “Lurk” drop down zone defender (In this case, #29 Safety Earl Thomas) playing towards the original 3 Receiver side and where Running Back Shane Vereen is. This last part regarding Shane Vereen will come in key later in the 1st half.

Vereen tied the Super Bowl record with 11 catches and converted key 3rd downs throughout the game. His biggest impact, however, may have been as a decoy on Gronk’s Touchdown before the 1st half. The Seahawks alternated their drop down Lurk/Buzz defender throughout the half between Chancellor and Thomas as well as to and away from Vereen. But Vereen had just gashed the Seahawks for a big catch and run, Julian Edelman had burnt backup Seahawks Cornerback Tharold Simon (#27) on the previous drive, and Gronkowski was unable to beat Kam Chancellor deep earlier in the game. With that, the Patriots lined up in Dakota formation, and Shane Vereen away from the Trips. The Seahawks were clearly in Cover 1 now, as Linebacker K.J. Wright lined up over Gronk in man technique, and Richard Sherman followed Julian Edelman across the formation. From here, all QB Tom Brady needed to know was who was the Deep Centerfield Safety, and who was the drop down Lurk Safety. It’s fairly easy to tell right before the snap that Kam Chancellor will be the deep middle defender towards the Trips side:

Once the ball is snapped, Earl Thomas flies down and only has his eyes on Vereen. Thomas doesn’t hesitate at all or pay any attention to Gronk, who is now truly 1 on 1 with K.J. Wright:

Brady almost certainly decided to go deep to Gronk on a Stutter-Fade route as soon as Earl Thomas took a step up pre-snap:

It also appears that Linebacker Bobby Wagner has his eyes on Vereen out of the backfield. Given that it was 2nd and 5 with 36 seconds left, Seattle could have been calling for bracket coverage to prevent Vereen from picking up the first down and setting a trap for Brady. It’s also possible that Earl Thomas had seen enough of Vereen underneath and decided to fly up to make a quick tackle or even interception. Either way, Vereen served as a perfect decoy to exploit the 1 on 1 matchup the Patriots wanted.

Play Action on Slant-Flat leads to LaFell TD

The Patriots love their Slant-Flat combo, and ran it numerous times in the 2012 matchup against the Seahawks. Super Bowl 49 was no different, as New England went to Slant-Flat at least 5 times. I thought New England would go to its usual Cover 3 beaters with Play Action to help freeze linebackers, and this is exactly what happened.

With Danny Amendola clearing out Byron Maxwell on the flat route, the Slant route is open for a Touchdown, with only Bobby Wagner or Earl Thomas (squared in red above) in position to break up or drive on the route. However, the Play Action fake keeps their eyes in the backfield and freezes both players for a fraction of a second. The Play Action by no means “fools” Wagner or Thomas, but even a tenth of a second is the difference here, as you can see just how close Wagner gets to tipping the throw, and how Thomas may be able to jar the ball loose with a big hit:

New England’s Pass Heavy Playsheet

The Patriots ended up throwing the ball 50 times, but I don’t think this was the plan prior to the game. New England ran the ball with LeGarrette Blount 8 times in the first 13 minutes of the game, but only 6 times total in the last 47 minutes. The heavy tilt towards passing likely had to do with the gruesome forearm injury to Seattle Nickel Cornerback Jeremy Lane. After Lane got hurt, Byron Maxwell was moved into the slot, and #27 Tharold Simon was forced into action. The Patriots started with a more simple game plan, but as they seemingly always do, changed the plan on the fly: Just as they did against the Ravens left side of the Secondary, the Patriots decided to attack Simon, attack him mercilessly and often. The results were undeniable:

With all that, the Patriots brought back Lombardy Trophy #4 to Foxboro.

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WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The Colts are almost a new team on the offensive side of the ball; since the 42-20 loss to New England, Boom Herron (#36) has replaced Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at Running Back, Donte Moncrief (#10) has emerged as a go to Wide Receiver, Tight End Dwayne Allen (#83) is healthy, and future Hall of Fame WR Reggie Wayne (#87) has become severely hampered with a torn triceps and hobbled groin. Additionally, the Colts have swapped and replaced two new offensive lineman into the mix.

The Colts did an excellent job last week of protecting Andrew Luck against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, while the Patriots pass rush was abysmal against the Ravens, recording 0 sacks on 45 pass attempts. The Colts do not have a strong running game, so look for them to spread it out in Empty formations and use QB Andrew Luck as a run threat. The Patriots can counter this and improve their pass rush by using DE/LB Akeem Ayers (#55) more often. Ayers only played one snap against the Ravens, but this is because the Patriots stayed in base defense to counter the Ravens zone run offense. The Patriots will almost certainly be in Nickel/Sub-Packages more often this week and use Ayers as pass rusher as well as a coverage linebacker.

One of the most telling signs of New England’s defensive game-plan will be how Brandon Browner is used. Browner was hobbled with a knee injury last week, and was beat several times by the Ravens’ Torrey Smith. In the Week 11 matchup against the Colts, Browner spent plenty of time covering Browner, with poor results. It could be a big mistake to have Browner cover Fleener or Moncrief, as both looked like they could easily get open against Browner (Browner is matched up on the bottom of the screen both times):

Instead, it would probably be best to use Browner on Wide Receivers/Tight Ends who are less shifty in space, such as Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Allen caught a TD last week while boxing out Denver’s Aqib Talib, and Browner is the best match up to prevent this from happening.

In the Week 11 game, Darrelle Revis almost exclusively matched up against Reggie Wayne. With Wayne hobbled, it will likely be another Patriots Defensive Back. (Probably #26 Logan Ryan). Revis will be used in two ways throughout the game: On T.Y. Hilton, or on Donte Moncrief. When Revis is not on Hilton, expect the speedy Kyle Arrington (#25) to cover Hilton with some sort of Safety help.

Finally, expect the Colts to attack the Patriots Cover 1/Cover 3 schemes and preventing press coverage by bunching Receivers and using motion & crossing routes, as the Colts had some success with this in Week 11, and the Ravens certainly had success with this strategy last week:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots played a whopping 37 snaps in Week 11 with a 6th offensive lineman. The results were uncanny, with Jonas Gray running for over 200 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Expect New England to run the ball with success, but not nearly as much, for a few reasons: Colts DT Arthur Jones is back from an injury, and Patriots Center Bryan Stork is out with a knee injury this week. This shuffle on the offensive and defensive lines will make it less easy for New England to run the ball all over Indy.

Instead, expect New England to attack the Colts aggressive man-to-man defense more through the air this time around. Colts Safety Laron Landry (#30) matched up with Denver’s Julius Thomas last week. Patriots Rob Gronkowski is a tougher cover than Thomas, and the Patriots can exploit the matchup like the Broncos did:

Because of the Colts affinity for man coverage and blitzing, look for Patriots RB Shane Vereen (#34) to get loose on a big gain in the passing game. The Broncos had a perfect opportunity by aligning the Tight End and Running Back together at the top of the screen, but somehow Peyton Manning misses a wide open Running Back on the wheel route:

If Gronkowski is split out wide, the Patriots love the hitch route against off coverage. However, if the Colts play press coverage with Landry like they did against Denver, the Patriots will certainly look to cash in by pairing Landry and a Linebacker in coverage against Vereen and Gronkowski.

Colts Cornerback Vontae Davis (#21) also is a key player on the Colts Defense to watch for. Davis played an excellent game last week and shut down both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas at times. Expect him to match up against both Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, depending on down and distance. He could also occasionally be used to cover Gronkowski, but the Colts must be careful with this matchup, as Gronkowski is a viable run blocker. Tom Brady could see this matchup and check to a run play, leaving  Vontae Davis in the box against a lineman. The play below shows exactly why Shane Vereen may be the one in for a big game: He can play off how the Colts decide to treat Gronkowski and benefit in both the passing and running attack.

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In the picture below, Shane Vereen (#34) starts as the outside most Wide Receiver and motions in to the backfield. A Raiders Linebacker (#50) chases him all the way across the formation; this is a tell-tale sign of Man-to-Man coverage. This is highlighted by the squares in the freeze frame.

If the defense did not reveal Man Coverage, Tom Brady would likely audible the play or focus on his zone coverage read, which is the right side of the field (Edelman and Amendola) in this picture. Once Vereen sets in the backfield, here is Vereen and Gronkowski’s (#87) mesh combination. Oakland is playing Man-to-Man on all other Receivers, with Charles Woodson as the Free Safety in Cover 1.

We already know the Linebacker that has followed Vereen’s motion will be covering him in Man-to-Man, which leaves Rob Gronkowski. No Raider Defensive Back is lined up directly on Gronkowski, but there is one on his outside shoulder. This leaves one Raider Linebacker unaccounted for (#50). His assignment is to “bracket” or double-cover Rob Gronkowski. More specifically, he is supposed to “wall-off” any inside breaking route by Gronkowski and help the outside shade Defensive Back. These defensive assignments are seen below:

However, as the play unfolds, Gronkowski is able to beat the Bracket Coverage Linebacker across his face. This happens for multiple reasons:

First, Gronkowski is able to have a completely free release off the line. Defensive End Justin Tuck has the opportunity to hit Gronkowski off the line, but Gronk quickly dips inside and avoids any contact, getting a clean release. Second, the Mesh concept creates traffic between Vereen, Gronkowski, and the 3 Oakland defenders. This traffic is exactly the purpose of the Mesh Concept and is difficult to cover. Finally, Gronkowski is a special talent: There are only a handful of Tight Ends that can get off the line clean and have the speed to beat a Defensive Back across the field while avoiding a Linebacker.

The result of the Motion & Mesh Concept is seen below first in slow motion, and then standard speed:

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