Eagles

The Eagles used running back motion, the wheel route, and the mesh concept repeatedly to take advantage of the Patriots decision to predominantly play man to man coverage. The Patriots were weak against pass catching running backs all year, particularly wheel routes. In the AFC Championship, Jacksonville missed their opportunity multiple times to hit an open running back against a linebacker or peeling defensive end; but the Eagles cashed in.

2nd Quarter, 1:46, 3rd & 3 on Phi 37 (Phi 15 NE 12)

Late in the first half, the Eagles make a huge play using both the mesh concept and the wheel route. Defensively, the Patriots are in Cover 1:

The Patriots have it covered well, but Jordan Richards (#37) takes a bad angle on the wheel route, leading to an easy throw for a huge gain. The angle below shows Richards could have gone over the sit route and been in position to make a tackle before the first down marker, instead of shooting underneath. Of course, if Malcolm Butler was on the field, Richards probably wouldn’t have been:

This won’t be the first time the Eagles use these concepts to beat the Patriots D. In fact, this particular play ends up being key for a fourth down conversion late in the game.

3rd Quarter, 7:25, 3rd & 6 on NE 22 (Phi 22 NE 19)

In the middle of the third, the Eagles use return motion as a coverage indicator; once #59 linebacker Marquis Flowers motions in with running back Corey Clement, Nick Foles knows its man to man coverage. The Eagles are running a drive concept with Clement’s wheel route behind it from the backfield. The Patriots are playing man to man with a free safety in centerfield. They are also doubling Zach Ertz; (#37) Jordan Richards has any in breaking routes, while (#32) Devin McCourty has any out breaking routes:

The Eagles end up getting a speedy running back on a linebacker. Foles has plenty of time  and delivers perhaps his best throw of the day for a touchdown. Meanwhile, the free safety is too far to make an impact on the wheel, and McCourty hesitates ever so slightly, flips his hips the wrong way, and is unable to make a play on the ball:

4th Quarter, 6:10, 4th & 1 on Phi 45 (NE 33 Phi 32)

The Eagles wouldn’t have had the opportunity for the go-ahead touchdown had it not been for a fourth down conversion in their own territory earlier in the drive. Earlier in the game, the Eagles gashed the Patriots with two huge passes to running back Corey Clement, analyzed above. The Eagles come back to the mesh concept on this critical fourth down. The Patriots are in man to man coverage, middle linebacker Kyle Van Noy blitzes, safety Duron Harmon is a “robber” in the box, and outside linebacker James Harrison has peel responsibility if the running back has a route. The Eagles mesh works perfectly, and Ertz is able to get free:

However, Patriots safety Duron Harmon is still in great position to make a play on Ertz. This is where the Eagles previous success on wheel routes to Clement comes into play; Harmon hesitates ever so slightly to the wheel, leaving enough space for Foles to complete the ball to Ertz for a crucial first down.

4th Quarter, 2:25, 3rd & 7 on NE 11 (NE 33 Phi 32)

On perhaps the most important play of Super Bowl 52, Pederson used motion to out-formation the Patriots and get exactly the matchup he was looking for: tight end Zack Ertz in 1 on 1 coverage. Pre-snap, the Eagles come out in bunch trips right, running back Corey Clement offset left, and Ertz wide left. The Patriots are playing man-to-man on the trips, but importantly, safety Duron Harmon can help Devin McCourty, currently lined up on Ertz, and take away any in breaking route. The Patriots would handle Clement out of the backfield with James Harrison peeling off to the flat:

However, when Clement fast motions from the backfield to the trips, the Patriots are completely outflanked and Harmon is forced to match him. This leaves McCourty on an island with Ertz at the very last second, and the rest is history:

While Pederson called a near perfect game, Josh McDaniels was just as good. The Patriots, more than any other team, use movement before the snap as coverage indicators. Super Bowl 52 was no exception:

Patriots

1st Quarter, 1:41, 3rd & 7 on NE 21

Before the snap, the Patriots motion in James White to the backfield. By this time, the Patriots know the Eagles are matching up safety Malcolm Jenkins (#27) with White. Jenkins follows White, but the Eagles could still plausibly be in a variety of coverages. The Patriots go one step further and have receivers Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks switch places. When the Eagles defenders don’t move, Tom Brady knows its zone coverage:

A side note, most analysts expected Malcolm Jenkins to match up with Gronk. Given that James White had 14 catches in Super Bowl 51 and Shane Vereen had 11 catches in Super Bowl 49, it made sense that the Eagles decided they’d try to limit James White. The move was effective; after the first drive White didn’t have a single catch.

2nd Quarter, 2:55, 2nd & 10 on NE 31

Down 15-6 with just under 3 minutes in the first half, the Patriots get a one on one matchup they unquestionably circled before the game; Eagles cornerback #31 Jalen Mills in man to man off coverage. Mills has struggled with double moves in this scenario throughout the year, (top of screen in first clip, bottom of screen in second clip):

This time is no different. Chris Hogan is matched up with Jalen Mills at the bottom of the screen, in off coverage, with no deep half help. He runs a curl and go for a huge gain:

3rd Quarter, 3:29, 1st & 10 on Phi 26

Down 10, the Patriots began the second half by attacking with seam routes. They also took advantage of a bit of confusion in alignment; in the NFC Championship game, when a non-pass catching back (Latavius Murray) split out wide, the Eagles were confused and gave up a wide open touchdown:

Below, Patriots fullback James Develin is highlighted at the top of the screen. When he lines up out wide, the Eagles are confused on coverage assignments. Meanwhile, the play call is double seams with Gronkowski and Hogan:

This becomes a big play because of three factors: First, the Eagles pre-snap confusion causes Malcolm Jenkins (free safety, highlighted above) to keep his eyes solely on Gronkowski as opposed to playing deep middle. Next, Tom Brady’s eyes hold Jenkins toward Gronkowski’s side. Watch Brady’s eyes flip to Hogan just before the throw. Third, Chris Hogan expands his seam route to the wide side of the field, creating more room for the throw:

Finally, it’s impossible to do a full review of Super Bowl 52 without mentioning “Philly Special,” the throwback pass the Eagles used to score right before the end of the first half:

Shot 13 – “Philly Special” … one of the most legendary moments in Philly Sports History. So much to love about this play….the design, the call, the timing, the execution. Foles reels in the TD from Trey Burton #FlyEaglesFly #SBLII pic.twitter.com/VU0zg76dKV

— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) February 7, 2018

It was a great play call and design, but there’s more: the Patriots ran the same play the last time they played the Eagles in 2015:

“Philly Special” 2015 Pats vs Eagles. We’ve seen this before. pic.twitter.com/KRmhYG55ld

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) February 8, 2018

It may have been in the playbook already, but it’s also possible Philly added it specifically for this game after reviewing that film. For those looking to add this play to the playbook, make sure you know the rules; in the NFL, the quarterback must be in the shotgun, or he is not eligible to catch a pass. There is no such rule in college:

Now Baker Mayfield is out here catching TDs too pic.twitter.com/S3esgz4L9s

— 2018 NFL Draft (@DraftRT) January 1, 2018

The post Super Bowl 52 X’s & O’s Review appeared first on Syed Schemes.

Eagles v. Falcons

The play call on Atlanta’s do or die 4th and Goal from Philly’s 2-yard line is understandably what everyone is talking about. After motioning Tight End (#80) Levine Toilolo across the formation, the Falcons ran sprint right with two short outs:

It’s easy to second guess a play call after watching it on TV, but there’s a lot not to like about this call with the season on the line from the two yard line:

The first issue I have with the play call is personnel choice–Atlanta has Fullback (#40) Derrick Coleman lined up out wide at the bottom of the screen. A running back out wide by itself isn’t a bad choice (it can help a Quarterback assess coverages). However, Atlanta should have had its best playmakers on the field, which certainly includes Running Back (#24) Devonta Freeman.

The second issue I have is sprinting out on 4th and Goal; I don’t like cutting the field in half without one of the following: 1) some sort of rub/pick concept, 2) a flat route that can turn into a wheel if not open at first, or 3) some sort of throwback option, like below:

Without any of these, the Eagles’ defense has defended almost 2/3 of the field without doing anything, and there is no recourse if Matt Ryan’s first read isn’t open.

This 4th and Goal also could have been a game winning Field Goal had it not been for an inexcusable end of first half mistake from Atlanta. With seven (:07) seconds left to play, the Eagles had the ball at the 50 yard line and no timeouts remaining. Understandably, Julio Jones is on the field in the deep middle in case Philly decides to take a shot at the end zone. Atlanta is also prepared with four defenders pre-snap for Philly to run a 3-man Flood concept to try and throw an out route and get out of bounds in time for a field goal attempt.:

Players #1 (Linebacker Deion Jones) and #3 (Cornerback Desmond Trufant) in the graphic allow for the intermediate out to be completed and out of bounds in six seconds. First, Jones hops inside and does not defend the sideline, even though any completion in the field of play would end the half. Then, Trufant sinks to the deep out, even though another defender is over the top and the clock would have run out if the ball was thrown to the deepest out.

The next play, the Eagles make a field goal as time expires. Understanding game situation and clock management cost Atlanta on two separate occasions in the divisional round.

Jaguars v. Steelers

Jacksonville offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett called a near flawless game on Sunday, but my favorite play was their final Touchdown with 4:34 to play in the 4th:

Jacksonville is in I-formation tight, with an extra Tight End to the right side of the formation. Pittsburgh is still in a 2-high Safety look, although the strong side Safety is playing with a staggered stance somewhat closer to the line of scrimmage. The Jaguars are running iso play action Fullback seam, otherwise affectionately known as “pop pass:”

The outer most Tight End takes a wide release and runs a fade to hold the Cornerback, while the play action sucks up the only two players in position to stop the play, leading to an easy touchdown:

Patriots vs. Titans

The divisional round didn’t make the Patriots sweat, but they have added a small X’s & O’s wrinkle I’ve noticed a few times this year. Similar to a jet sweep or toss crack, New England has scored multiple times this year with a Running Back or Wide Receiver (usually Brandin Cooks) coming in motion and Tom Brady ‘dropping’ the ball to them as they run around the corner. Below, James White (#28) comes in motion slowly at first, and Titans Linebacker (#59) Wesley Woodyard follows, confirming it’s man-to-man coverage and a good look for the dropoff sweep. It’s possible the Patriots have a check out of this play if it isn’t man to man or against certain fronts: 

As long as Left Guard Joe Thuney can reach his gap and make sure the Defensive Tackle (Pro-bowler Jurrell Casey) doesn’t penetrate, New England has great look: down blocks by Gronk and Wide Receiver Chris Hogan (#15) with Nate Solder (#77) pulling around to lead the way on the Cornerback originally lined up over Hogan:

Thuney does his assignment, there are great down block angles, and James White is able to catch the ball at almost full speed for a relatively easy touchdown:

Vikings vs. Saints

The game winning touchdown in the Vikings vs. Saints game began as the same exact situation as the Falcons vs. Eagles end of half scenario; there were ten seconds left and the Vikings had no timeouts, so any completion in the field of play would end the game. However, the Vikings were at their own 39 yard line, so a Hail Mary to the end zone was out of the question. The Vikings run the same play as the Eagles, a 3-man Flood concept:

We all know what happened next:

It’s obvious Saints DB Marcus Williams misplays both Stephon Diggs and the ball. But the Saints coaching staff could have put the defense in a better position. First, given the game scenario, the absolute number one priority is “do not let the Vikings complete the ball and get out of bounds,” yet the Saints only have 3 defenders guarding the sideline. Instead, the Saints should have either rushed only 3 down lineman or pulled their Middle Linebacker much closer to the sideline and the bunched Vikings. The Saints already have 3 defenders to account for the backside Wide Receiver Adam Thielen and Running Back Jerrick McKinnon, and the Vikings can’t complete the ball in bounds, so the Middle Linebacker does nothing but cover grass.

Overall, there was a lot to learn on game management this weekend; football fans can only hope the championship round and the Super Bowl bring as much excitement as the divisional round.

The post 2017 Divisional Round Review appeared first on Syed Schemes.

When the Patriots have the ball

Expect the Patriots to spend their first couple drives combining fast paced tempo with information gathering. The Patriots use motion and non-traditional sets early to analyze the defense. For example, the Patriots line up fullback James Develin or a running back out wide to see who goes out to cover him. If a linebacker goes with the back, it’s man coverage. If a corner stays with the back, it’s zone coverage. From there, Brady picks the best matchup.

This will help diagnose the Falcons relatively simple defensive scheme. The Falcons primarily play Cover 1 or Cover 3, and don’t blitz often. Although the Falcons have blitzed more frequently during the playoffs, I don’t expect them to blitz Brady a ton in Super Bowl 51. Nor do I expect the Falcons to sit back in Cover 3 and let Brady pick apart zone coverage. Instead, the only consistent strategy for beating the Patriots in the playoffs has been pressure with 4, preferably up the middle.

The Houston Texans gave the most recent blueprint for how the Falcons can accomplish this. While only rushing 4 or 5, they lined up both Jadeveon Clowney (#90) and Whitney Mercilus (#59) over Patriots center David Andrews and rookie guard Joe Thuney throughout the game to cause pressure up the middle:

The Falcons can do the same with Vic Beasley consistently and use Dwight Freeney in this manner on obvious passing downs. They could also accomplish the same goal by twisting Vic Beasley from the outside.

Against Cover 1 and 3, look for the Patriots to go to their Post-Wheel-Out combination:

Credit: Matt Bowen, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18609488/illustrating-new-england-patriots-go-plays-josh-mcdaniels-super-bowl-li-2016-nfl-playoffs

Against Cover 3, the safety and cornerback will take the two deep routes. This presents a problem for the underneath coverage; they must react to the wheel initially, leaving an opening for the out route. The Patriots had great success with this play against the Steelers:

The play is also a good scheme against Cover 1 because the deep safety will be occupied by one of the deep routes and Edelman will draw man coverage on an out route:

Another key will be how the Falcons decide to play Empty formation. Against the Packers in the NFC championship game, they largely played Cover 2-man with some bracket Cover 1 as well. Look for the Patriots to run their Hoss Y-Juke concept from Empty. If the Falcons don’t line up anybody on #3 strong or don’t have a wall defender on Edelman’s in breaking route, he’ll have a huge day:

Finally, with the Patriots being as multiple as they are, look for 6 lineman sets to run the ball. The Patriots have implemented this strategy against teams they deem to be undersized on defense, like the Colts. This could be especially useful if the the Falcons offense comes out hot and the Patriots want to slow the game down and get their defense time to rest and adjust.

When the Falcons have the ball

When the Falcons have the ball, it’s all about the running backs. Yes, Julio Jones is all-world, but the versatility of their running backs is what makes them a historically great offense. To win Super Bowl 51, the Patriots will have to do two things on defense: set the edge in the run game, and account for the Falcons dynamic running backs in the passing game.

The Falcons are primarily an outside zone team, and setting the edge could determine the outcome of the game. If the Patriots linebackers consistently over pursue or the Falcons are able to reach the edge defender, the Falcons will have success in the run game and be able to set up big plays down the field with play action. If the Patriots are able to maintain gap discipline, string out plays, and not over pursue, they can neutralize the run game along with play action.

Look for Patriots like Jabaal Sheard, Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, and Chris Long to constantly attempt to collision tackles and tight ends to create a new line of scrimmage in the backfield. When Atlanta runs outside zone or their crack toss from under center or shotgun, watch the edge instead of the running back or the ball– it’ll tell you how the play will end up long before the running back gets there.

Credit: Matt Bowen, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18585391/illustrating-atlanta-falcons-go-plays-kyle-shanahan-super-bowl-li-2016-nfl-playoffs

The Falcons also use their running backs in the passing game better than any team in the NFL, with the highest target percentage of throws going to running backs in the NFL. Against Denver, one of the NFL’s best defenses, the Falcons repeatedly motioned to empty formation with Tevin Coleman (#26) and Devonta Freeman (#24) going from the backfield to the slot and creating mismatches:

In the example below, the Falcons are able to identify the coverage by putting a tight end and the fullback out wide to the right. With a linebacker coming out on the fullback, Matt Ryan knows its man coverage underneath. A linebacker also comes out to cover Tevin Coleman, and the safety widens to the three receiver side. Ryan hits Tevin Coleman for a touchdown on a seam route:

The Patriots have a few options on how to defend the shift to empty. They likely will have an automatic check to either Cover 2 or Cover 2-man. They could also drop defensive lineman in coverage to try and take away underneath routes. To counter, the Falcons could potentially use Coleman and Freeman together and shift them both from the backfield to out wide. This would give the Falcons a run threat to start with two running backs in the backfield, but then also force the Patriots to defend an empty set with both Falcons backs.

The Patriots will also have to deal with the Falcons running backs catching the ball from the backfield. If the Patriots are in man coverage, it may be best for the Patriots to keep a safety on Falcon running backs as opposed to linebackers. In the divisional round against Seattle, the Falcons ran a beautiful RB corner route against Seattle’s Cover 3:

With only 3 defenders on the left side of the picture, the Falcons attack the coverage with 4 routes. The corner carries the deep post, the flat defender takes the flat route, the strong safety comes up to Julio Jones dragging across the field, and this leaves Coleman wide open:

The key here is that there is over 3 seconds from snap to throw. This type of scheme will almost certainly result in somebody being open because regardless of coverage, the Falcons just have too many weapons from a personnel perspective to cover. To combat this, the Patriots front 4 will have to create enough pressure to disrupt Matt Ryan’s throwing lanes and line of vision.

Finally, the Patriots will have to decide how to matchup with the Falcons wideouts when they play man coverage. Like last week, expect Patrick Chung (#23) to have tight end man coverage duties, whether that be on Austin Hooper (#81) or Levine Toilolo (#80). Expect Malcolm Butler (#21) to cover Taylor Gabriel (#18) when he is on the field. Eric Rowe (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), and Butler will all get their chance to cover Julio Jones in spurts with some sort of help from Devin McCourty (#32) or Duron Harmon (#30). How the Patriots use McCourty will be particularly interesting. With so many weapons, McCourty’s versatility and ability to play man to man as well as deep safety will be invaluable.

Super Bowl 51 should be fascinating from an X’s and O’s perspective. Prediction: Patriots 34, Falcons 27.

The post Super Bowl 51 Preview appeared first on Syed Schemes.

2nd Quarter, 4:06, 2nd & Goal at the 6:

On all 3 Touchdowns in the four Tight End set, #88 Scott Chandler is paired with #87 Rob Gronkowski (the pass catchers), while #47 “Hooman” is paired with #85 Mike Williams. The first time the Steelers see the formation, their Front 7 is in Bear with 2 Safeties and 2 Cornerbacks in man to man coverage behind it. The Patriots check to a stretch play action  2 man route with Gronkowski running a seam route and Chandler expanding to the back pylon:

Gronk is able to beat his man, who is frozen by a stretch play action. Steelers Safety Mike Mitchell (#23) attempts to peel back to Gronkowski after his man stays in protection, but is too late. Below are the End Zone and Field angles of the Touchdown:

3rd Quarter, 11:17, 2nd & Goal at the 1:

The second time New England comes out with four Tight Ends, the Steelers respond with their Goal Line personnel, with only 1 Defensive Back on the field. To start, #88 Scott Chandler is in the backfield as a Fullback. Prior to the snap, #47 Hooman shifts out wide to the right, taking the only Steeler Defensive Back with him. From there, Gronkowski and Chandler shift to the left:

With only 1 Defensive Back on the field, the Steelers shift out 2 linebackers to match up man to man with Gronkowski and Chandler. This is a mismatch Tom Brady will exploit 100% of the time. On the second TD from the four tight end set, the Patriots run a Slant-Flat combination:

Below is the Field All-22 angle for the 2nd Touchdown:

4th Quarter, 9:28, 3rd & Goal at the 1:

On the final four tight end play of the night, the Patriots start with the same shift as the prior Touchdown. The Steelers respond with the same exact personnel grouping. From the 1 yard line, there isn’t much choice but to play this type of heavy personnel. However, going forward, it will be interesting to see how opposing defenses match up with the four Tight End look from the 5 or 10 yard line. This time, the Patriots run a fade to Gronkowski for his 3rd TD of the night (with Chandler once again running to the flat):

Chess Match Going Forward

Future Patriots opponents have this tape to watch and may approach the four Tight End set differently. The first thing the defense could do is match linebackers to #47 Hooman and #85 Mike Williams side, while keeping better pass defenders (Safeties) on to Gronkowski’s side. Personnel choice will be key; is the best way to match up 3 Safeties to counter four Tight Ends? Teams will certainly live with either Hooman or Williams beating them in the pass game. Defenses can also counter by moving an extra defender out to make it 3 defenders over Chandler and Gronkowski. In Week 1, the Steelers covered all Tight Ends who shifted out with man to man coverage:

Bringing out an another defender toward Gronk/Chandler would help the pass defense, but would help the Patriots run game near the Goal Line immensely by lightening the box to 7 vs. 7. Defenses may choose this strategy inside the 10 yard line and dare the Patriots to run the ball in the red zone with a young offensive line.

The Patriots likely have only shown the tip of the iceberg with respect to the four Tight End, or “Aces” formation. Look for them to have several formational and motion variations as well as run a variety of plays from the personnel grouping. This formation may only have come about when Fullback James Develin was lost for the season, allowing for the coaching staff to come up with creative ways to use Tight Ends in the red zone.

If defenses do over commit to the pass against “Aces”, New England could split out Gronk and Scott Chandler to different sides of the formation as 6’6″+ fade targets. The Patriots could also put defenses in a bind by having Chandler, Hooman, and Williams to one side as a run heavy side with Gronk split out wide on the opposite side. This would force defenses to commit numbers to the run heavy side or leave Gronk 1 on 1. Either way, I look forward to the four Tight End look being used by New England in the red zone throughout the season.

WEEK 2 UPDATE

The Patriots cashed in again on the Goal Line with their 4 TE set week 2 against the Bills. Below, the Patriots show a similar shift causing confusion in the Bills secondary. This time, Gronkowski runs a short Dig route, with Chandler running a pivot. Gronkowski finds himself open in the back of the end zone:

[gfycat data_id="PaleImmaterialFlies" data_autoplay=false data_controls=true data_title=false data_expand=true]

Later in the game, the Patriots go back to the 4 TE set on the Goal Line, this time separating Chandler and Gronkowski to opposite sides. Gronkowski is double teamed on the bottom, and the Patriots get the 1 on 1 matchup they want, but the Bills break up the play:

[gfycat data_id="PlushSoftGorilla" data_autoplay=false data_controls=true data_title=false data_expand=true]

Week 5 Update

The Patriots have traded away Tight End #47 Michael Hoomanawanui to the Saints. If the Patriots continue the 4 TE set, look for Tackle #77 Nate Solder to play as a TE on the goal line, as he played some TE in college and was used as an extra lineman/TE his rookie year.

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WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The Colts are almost a new team on the offensive side of the ball; since the 42-20 loss to New England, Boom Herron (#36) has replaced Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at Running Back, Donte Moncrief (#10) has emerged as a go to Wide Receiver, Tight End Dwayne Allen (#83) is healthy, and future Hall of Fame WR Reggie Wayne (#87) has become severely hampered with a torn triceps and hobbled groin. Additionally, the Colts have swapped and replaced two new offensive lineman into the mix.

The Colts did an excellent job last week of protecting Andrew Luck against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, while the Patriots pass rush was abysmal against the Ravens, recording 0 sacks on 45 pass attempts. The Colts do not have a strong running game, so look for them to spread it out in Empty formations and use QB Andrew Luck as a run threat. The Patriots can counter this and improve their pass rush by using DE/LB Akeem Ayers (#55) more often. Ayers only played one snap against the Ravens, but this is because the Patriots stayed in base defense to counter the Ravens zone run offense. The Patriots will almost certainly be in Nickel/Sub-Packages more often this week and use Ayers as pass rusher as well as a coverage linebacker.

One of the most telling signs of New England’s defensive game-plan will be how Brandon Browner is used. Browner was hobbled with a knee injury last week, and was beat several times by the Ravens’ Torrey Smith. In the Week 11 matchup against the Colts, Browner spent plenty of time covering Browner, with poor results. It could be a big mistake to have Browner cover Fleener or Moncrief, as both looked like they could easily get open against Browner (Browner is matched up on the bottom of the screen both times):

Instead, it would probably be best to use Browner on Wide Receivers/Tight Ends who are less shifty in space, such as Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Allen caught a TD last week while boxing out Denver’s Aqib Talib, and Browner is the best match up to prevent this from happening.

In the Week 11 game, Darrelle Revis almost exclusively matched up against Reggie Wayne. With Wayne hobbled, it will likely be another Patriots Defensive Back. (Probably #26 Logan Ryan). Revis will be used in two ways throughout the game: On T.Y. Hilton, or on Donte Moncrief. When Revis is not on Hilton, expect the speedy Kyle Arrington (#25) to cover Hilton with some sort of Safety help.

Finally, expect the Colts to attack the Patriots Cover 1/Cover 3 schemes and preventing press coverage by bunching Receivers and using motion & crossing routes, as the Colts had some success with this in Week 11, and the Ravens certainly had success with this strategy last week:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots played a whopping 37 snaps in Week 11 with a 6th offensive lineman. The results were uncanny, with Jonas Gray running for over 200 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Expect New England to run the ball with success, but not nearly as much, for a few reasons: Colts DT Arthur Jones is back from an injury, and Patriots Center Bryan Stork is out with a knee injury this week. This shuffle on the offensive and defensive lines will make it less easy for New England to run the ball all over Indy.

Instead, expect New England to attack the Colts aggressive man-to-man defense more through the air this time around. Colts Safety Laron Landry (#30) matched up with Denver’s Julius Thomas last week. Patriots Rob Gronkowski is a tougher cover than Thomas, and the Patriots can exploit the matchup like the Broncos did:

Because of the Colts affinity for man coverage and blitzing, look for Patriots RB Shane Vereen (#34) to get loose on a big gain in the passing game. The Broncos had a perfect opportunity by aligning the Tight End and Running Back together at the top of the screen, but somehow Peyton Manning misses a wide open Running Back on the wheel route:

If Gronkowski is split out wide, the Patriots love the hitch route against off coverage. However, if the Colts play press coverage with Landry like they did against Denver, the Patriots will certainly look to cash in by pairing Landry and a Linebacker in coverage against Vereen and Gronkowski.

Colts Cornerback Vontae Davis (#21) also is a key player on the Colts Defense to watch for. Davis played an excellent game last week and shut down both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas at times. Expect him to match up against both Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, depending on down and distance. He could also occasionally be used to cover Gronkowski, but the Colts must be careful with this matchup, as Gronkowski is a viable run blocker. Tom Brady could see this matchup and check to a run play, leaving  Vontae Davis in the box against a lineman. The play below shows exactly why Shane Vereen may be the one in for a big game: He can play off how the Colts decide to treat Gronkowski and benefit in both the passing and running attack.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL 

In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.

Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary

The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.

With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:

When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:

While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.

The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).

As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).

One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.

 WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL 

The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).

Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):

However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:

The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:

If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:

Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.

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In the picture below, Shane Vereen (#34) starts as the outside most Wide Receiver and motions in to the backfield. A Raiders Linebacker (#50) chases him all the way across the formation; this is a tell-tale sign of Man-to-Man coverage. This is highlighted by the squares in the freeze frame.

If the defense did not reveal Man Coverage, Tom Brady would likely audible the play or focus on his zone coverage read, which is the right side of the field (Edelman and Amendola) in this picture. Once Vereen sets in the backfield, here is Vereen and Gronkowski’s (#87) mesh combination. Oakland is playing Man-to-Man on all other Receivers, with Charles Woodson as the Free Safety in Cover 1.

We already know the Linebacker that has followed Vereen’s motion will be covering him in Man-to-Man, which leaves Rob Gronkowski. No Raider Defensive Back is lined up directly on Gronkowski, but there is one on his outside shoulder. This leaves one Raider Linebacker unaccounted for (#50). His assignment is to “bracket” or double-cover Rob Gronkowski. More specifically, he is supposed to “wall-off” any inside breaking route by Gronkowski and help the outside shade Defensive Back. These defensive assignments are seen below:

However, as the play unfolds, Gronkowski is able to beat the Bracket Coverage Linebacker across his face. This happens for multiple reasons:

First, Gronkowski is able to have a completely free release off the line. Defensive End Justin Tuck has the opportunity to hit Gronkowski off the line, but Gronk quickly dips inside and avoids any contact, getting a clean release. Second, the Mesh concept creates traffic between Vereen, Gronkowski, and the 3 Oakland defenders. This traffic is exactly the purpose of the Mesh Concept and is difficult to cover. Finally, Gronkowski is a special talent: There are only a handful of Tight Ends that can get off the line clean and have the speed to beat a Defensive Back across the field while avoiding a Linebacker.

The result of the Motion & Mesh Concept is seen below first in slow motion, and then standard speed:

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