WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL:

Green Bay cut the field in half when they chose not to attack the right side of the field to avoid Richard Sherman Week 1; Green Bay aligned #11 Jarrett Boykin to the right on the vast majority of snaps. The Packers must attack all parts of the field in order to be successful this week.  While the Packers will almost certainly line up #87 Jordy Nelson to the right more often, the emergence of rookie #17 Davonte Adams gives Green Bay a viable threat even when Jordy Nelson is on the left side of the field. However, attacking the right side of the field doesn’t necessarily mean attacking Sherman 1 on 1. Look for Green Bay to manipulate formations to move Sherman away from the outside most Receiver. Dallas was able to do this from a Trips tight formation, with the TE as the lone eligible receiver to the left, and 3 Wideouts to the right:

Sherman moves with Dez Bryant to the slot

This formation moves Richard Sherman to the slot against Dez Bryant. The Packers Wide Receiving core is deeper than the Cowboys’ WRs, and this alignment would put the Seahawks in a bigger bind than against Dallas. If Seattle aligns Richard Sherman over Jordy Nelson in the slot, Sherman is not at his absolute best without the sideline as a defender. On the other hand, if Sherman stays to the outside, Green Bay can use #18 Randall Cobb, Adams or Nelson on the right side of the field without ever testing Sherman. This play results in a 20+ yard gain with the whole field to work with, and a penalty on Sherman:

The trips tight formation makes Seattle’s Cover 3 slightly more challenging to play. The play above is Cover 1, and Green Bay should try to exploit it like Dallas did. Another way Green Bay can attack the right side of the field is by splitting either Running Back #27 Eddie Lacy or #44 James Starks out wide with Randall Cobb in the slot right:

Sherman aligns against Welker in the slot with the RB to the outside

In the picture above, the Broncos place a Running Back out wide to move Sherman to the slot. If Green Bay can manipulate formations to get Randall Cobb on Sherman, especially in the slot, this is the most favorable matchup for Green Bay. Like other big corners, the hardest matchup isn’t necessarily the best or biggest Receiver; in fact, the shiftier, quicker types give Sherman slightly more trouble.

As for the running game, Green Bay must establish it early. Eddie Lacy was unable to finish the game Week 1 with a concussion, but his presence will be huge on Sunday. He started off the game gaining yardage while breaking tackles and being agile enough to juke out the best safety in the NFL, Earl Thomas; no small task:

Runs like this are essential for multiple reasons: Green Bay will probably spend 95% of the game in either Shotgun or Pistol due to Aaron Rodgers’ hurt calf. The Packers must be able to run the ball regardless. Lacy is a versatile back: he is a viable threat in the passing game, can run defenders over, and also can make defenders miss. Look for Lacy and Seattle’s Cam Chancellor (#31) to provide some of the hardest collisions the NFL has seen all year. If Lacy can stay healthy for the whole game, look for the Packers to improve on the 16 point output from Week 1.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL:

Seattle drove Green Bay crazy Week 1 with various versions of Jet Sweep and read option. However, with Percy Harvin long gone, Seattle will come up with new wrinkles to attack the Green Bay run defense. Green Bay’s run defense has improved greatly over the course of the season: Since Clay Matthews moved to Inside Linebacker, Green Bay is in the top-10 against the run. (GB was in the bottom 10 prior). Green Bay has also recently gotten major contributions out of Defensive Lineman #76 Mike Daniels in stopping the run. Daniels will sometimes be lined up against a hurting Max Unger (Seattle’s Center, #60) and could be the key to getting interior penetration against Seattle’s run game with efforts like this, causing Running Backs to hesitate and freeing up Clay Matthews from the middle:

This matchup is key and simply about execution, not X’s and O’s. Seattle will look to dominate the line of scrimmage and Daniels like in the Week 1 matchup:

Seattle will certainly use some read option, but look for them to use the split zone concept as well. Split zone may look like zone read and is meant to freeze linebackers, but the Quarterback is only a decoy as a running threat. It is blocked similar to Zone read in the sense that a defender is left unblocked at the snap of the ball and the Tackle can aggressively down block. However, a Tight End or fullback will come across the formation to block the defensive end or linebacker. The direction of the Running Back and the Quarterback’s action will make it look like Read Option, and create a natural crease for the blocker and the running back to cut back. Seen below is a Week 1 Split Zone run to perfection. Green Bay’s Clay Matthews (#52) plays this as zone read, only to be blocked completely out of the play by Luke Willson (#82) who is coming across the formation. Russell Wilson (#3) sells read option action, but is never actually a running threat:

Finally, when it comes to the passing game, look for the key matchup to be #56 Julius Peppers against banged up Rookie Right Tackle #68 Justin Britt. (If Britt can’t play due to injury, Alvin Bailey would be next in line). Peppers has been on fire recently, forcing fumbles from both Tony Romo and Demarco Murray last week. His pass rush ability must make Russell Wilson uncomfortable in the pocket.

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The play is a common goal line pass play for many college and NFL coaches: a Slant route and a Shoot or Flat route with the hopes of a natural “pick” to make it difficult to cover in Man to Man coverage. Notre Dame ran the play from a “Bunch” formation, which is 3 Wide Receivers aligned in a triangle close together. The Apex, point man, (Middle WR) runs to the goal line and attempts to make himself a big target and box out any defender. The outside Wide Receiver runs a Slant route, and the inside most Receiver runs a Flat route. Florida State matches this with straight Cover 0: FSU is in all Man to Man with no Safety help anywhere, with everybody else blitzing. Notice the backside Tight End and Running Back do not go out for pass patterns, and the pre-snap assignments are shown below:

After the snap, the Apex (Middle) Receiver attempts to make himself a target, but gets jammed badly. However, the rest of the play works to perfection: FSU is in Man-to-Man, they don’t communicate, there is crossing and the inside most WR for Notre Dame is able to get free for an easy score. You can see this after the play: The FSU defenders don’t complain to the referee, they are talking amongst themselves about the blown coverage. The problem is that the two outside Notre Dame WR’s don’t continue routes or even make it appear they are running routes after contact with defenders. Instead, they extend their arms and box defenders out, probably knowing the natural pick has occurred and a TD is imminent. This is likely what raised suspicion to the official; the Notre Dame WR’s made contact, sealed off the Florida State defenders, and then made no more football moves. Natural traffic is perfectly legal, while blocking while the ball is in the air or impeding a defender by sealing them off from another route is not. Here is the freeze frame before the ball is thrown:

The penalty is eventually called on the outside most WR for Notre Dame, but as the videos below show, the offensive pass interference penalty could have been called on either of the WR’s because it arguably looks like they are blocking instead of running routes: (first in slow motion, then standard speed)

It is somewhat difficult to see exactly who initiates contact and what happens after the snap from the broadcast TV angle. A side field angle gives a better view:

The penalty call is certainly open to interpretation. It looks like #7 and #20 (ND WR’s) initiate contact, but the FSU defenders also tried to jam them. The Notre Dame WR’s could have accomplished their goal simply by making it look like they were running a route (still having the intention to get in the way to free up the flat route). Take an NFL example from Week 7, with the Packers running a 2 Wide Receiver Slant/Flat combo on the goal line against Man-to-Man:

No penalty is called on the Packers Touchdown with nearly an identical situation. Why? Because Jordy Nelson, the outside WR running the Slant avoids any contact with the defender while still sealing him off from the Flat route Defender. Additionally, Jordy Nelson continues to run his route and even turns and turns and continues a route instead of looking directly at the route he just picked for. Here is the video of Jordy Nelson setting a legal pick on a Slant/Shoot combo for a Randall Cobb TD from multiple angles:

The key isn’t what the Wide Receiver intends to do or if a pick occurs, it’s how Wide Receivers selI what is occurring to a Referee watching the play at full speed and without the benefit of replay. Jordy Nelson, a true professional, does exactly the same thing the Notre Dame WR’s wanted to do without extending his arms or making it appear like he is blocking early or not actually running a route. In fact Jordy Nelson never even makes contact with the Panthers defender.  Had the Notre Dame Receivers done a better job selling the Slant/Flat pick play, they would likely be ranked #1 in the country this week.

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Minnesota is in a base 4-3 Cover 2 look, with both Safeties responsible for one “Deep-Half” of the field, and each of the Cornerbacks and linebackers taking an underneath zone for five defenders across underneath:

The Offensive Line sells Outside Zone left very well, and Rodgers starts the play with an excellent Play-Action fake, drawing the eyes of the Safety that would be immediately affected:

Next, Rodgers goes through his progression and uses his eyes to affect defenders. Rodgers looks at his first read and checks both Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson and Safety Harrison Smith, who is in good position with a 10-yard cushion. Meanwhile, the Safety originally affected by the Play Action has flipped his hips to go back to his coverage responsibility

Rodgers then goes to his next read, the 2nd Safety. Here is where the play design works to perfection. The Play Action and Randall Cobb’s Post-Dig route has drawn the attention of the 2nd Safety. Even though the Cornerback is in good position to play the route, the 2nd Safety comes up to play the route because he does not feel his Deep-Half is threatened. In this freeze frame, it is not, because Jordy Nelson is stemming toward the corner. Vikings Safety Harrison Smith (#22) commits to this stem and breaks on the route

GIve credit to the Packers’ Offensive Line; this is a long developing play, and without them Rodgers would not be able to go through his progression in a clean pocket for this much time. Rodgers sees the 2nd Safety breaking towards Randall Cobb, but knows Jordy Nelson is going to break back to the Post. Rodgers baits the 2nd Safety into believing he wants to throw the ball to Cobb, which creates a giant void behind the 2nd Safety

In addition to the great Offensive Line play, Packers WR Jordy Nelson (#87) sets up Vikings Safety Harrison Smith with a great route. At this point, 1/2 of the field is completely vacant, and Nelson has beat the safety. The video below puts together the progression of the play, first in slow motion, then standard speed:

The Sting Route combined with the Dig can be used as a 1 safety or 2 safety beater. Against Cover 1 or 3, the offense reads the single high safety. If the single high safety stays deep, the dig underneath is the throw, and if the safety bites up, the Sting route is the throw.

However, against Cover 2 either the Quarterback must control the backside safety with play action and his eyes, or the dig route must occupy him to create a 1 on 1 matchup with the safety defending the Sting route.

Many factors go into this Touchdown. Aaron Rodgers shows why he is one of the very best Quarterbacks in the game, the Offensive Line protects him for ample time, and Nelson runs a great sting route. Other NFL Analysts breaking down the Sting Route (#8).

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