WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL:

Green Bay cut the field in half when they chose not to attack the right side of the field to avoid Richard Sherman Week 1; Green Bay aligned #11 Jarrett Boykin to the right on the vast majority of snaps. The Packers must attack all parts of the field in order to be successful this week.  While the Packers will almost certainly line up #87 Jordy Nelson to the right more often, the emergence of rookie #17 Davonte Adams gives Green Bay a viable threat even when Jordy Nelson is on the left side of the field. However, attacking the right side of the field doesn’t necessarily mean attacking Sherman 1 on 1. Look for Green Bay to manipulate formations to move Sherman away from the outside most Receiver. Dallas was able to do this from a Trips tight formation, with the TE as the lone eligible receiver to the left, and 3 Wideouts to the right:

Sherman moves with Dez Bryant to the slot

This formation moves Richard Sherman to the slot against Dez Bryant. The Packers Wide Receiving core is deeper than the Cowboys’ WRs, and this alignment would put the Seahawks in a bigger bind than against Dallas. If Seattle aligns Richard Sherman over Jordy Nelson in the slot, Sherman is not at his absolute best without the sideline as a defender. On the other hand, if Sherman stays to the outside, Green Bay can use #18 Randall Cobb, Adams or Nelson on the right side of the field without ever testing Sherman. This play results in a 20+ yard gain with the whole field to work with, and a penalty on Sherman:

The trips tight formation makes Seattle’s Cover 3 slightly more challenging to play. The play above is Cover 1, and Green Bay should try to exploit it like Dallas did. Another way Green Bay can attack the right side of the field is by splitting either Running Back #27 Eddie Lacy or #44 James Starks out wide with Randall Cobb in the slot right:

Sherman aligns against Welker in the slot with the RB to the outside

In the picture above, the Broncos place a Running Back out wide to move Sherman to the slot. If Green Bay can manipulate formations to get Randall Cobb on Sherman, especially in the slot, this is the most favorable matchup for Green Bay. Like other big corners, the hardest matchup isn’t necessarily the best or biggest Receiver; in fact, the shiftier, quicker types give Sherman slightly more trouble.

As for the running game, Green Bay must establish it early. Eddie Lacy was unable to finish the game Week 1 with a concussion, but his presence will be huge on Sunday. He started off the game gaining yardage while breaking tackles and being agile enough to juke out the best safety in the NFL, Earl Thomas; no small task:

Runs like this are essential for multiple reasons: Green Bay will probably spend 95% of the game in either Shotgun or Pistol due to Aaron Rodgers’ hurt calf. The Packers must be able to run the ball regardless. Lacy is a versatile back: he is a viable threat in the passing game, can run defenders over, and also can make defenders miss. Look for Lacy and Seattle’s Cam Chancellor (#31) to provide some of the hardest collisions the NFL has seen all year. If Lacy can stay healthy for the whole game, look for the Packers to improve on the 16 point output from Week 1.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL:

Seattle drove Green Bay crazy Week 1 with various versions of Jet Sweep and read option. However, with Percy Harvin long gone, Seattle will come up with new wrinkles to attack the Green Bay run defense. Green Bay’s run defense has improved greatly over the course of the season: Since Clay Matthews moved to Inside Linebacker, Green Bay is in the top-10 against the run. (GB was in the bottom 10 prior). Green Bay has also recently gotten major contributions out of Defensive Lineman #76 Mike Daniels in stopping the run. Daniels will sometimes be lined up against a hurting Max Unger (Seattle’s Center, #60) and could be the key to getting interior penetration against Seattle’s run game with efforts like this, causing Running Backs to hesitate and freeing up Clay Matthews from the middle:

This matchup is key and simply about execution, not X’s and O’s. Seattle will look to dominate the line of scrimmage and Daniels like in the Week 1 matchup:

Seattle will certainly use some read option, but look for them to use the split zone concept as well. Split zone may look like zone read and is meant to freeze linebackers, but the Quarterback is only a decoy as a running threat. It is blocked similar to Zone read in the sense that a defender is left unblocked at the snap of the ball and the Tackle can aggressively down block. However, a Tight End or fullback will come across the formation to block the defensive end or linebacker. The direction of the Running Back and the Quarterback’s action will make it look like Read Option, and create a natural crease for the blocker and the running back to cut back. Seen below is a Week 1 Split Zone run to perfection. Green Bay’s Clay Matthews (#52) plays this as zone read, only to be blocked completely out of the play by Luke Willson (#82) who is coming across the formation. Russell Wilson (#3) sells read option action, but is never actually a running threat:

Finally, when it comes to the passing game, look for the key matchup to be #56 Julius Peppers against banged up Rookie Right Tackle #68 Justin Britt. (If Britt can’t play due to injury, Alvin Bailey would be next in line). Peppers has been on fire recently, forcing fumbles from both Tony Romo and Demarco Murray last week. His pass rush ability must make Russell Wilson uncomfortable in the pocket.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL 

In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.

Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary

The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.

With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:

When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:

While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.

The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).

As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).

One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.

 WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL 

The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).

Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):

However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:

The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:

If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:

Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.

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Minnesota is in a base 4-3 Cover 2 look, with both Safeties responsible for one “Deep-Half” of the field, and each of the Cornerbacks and linebackers taking an underneath zone for five defenders across underneath:

The Offensive Line sells Outside Zone left very well, and Rodgers starts the play with an excellent Play-Action fake, drawing the eyes of the Safety that would be immediately affected:

Next, Rodgers goes through his progression and uses his eyes to affect defenders. Rodgers looks at his first read and checks both Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson and Safety Harrison Smith, who is in good position with a 10-yard cushion. Meanwhile, the Safety originally affected by the Play Action has flipped his hips to go back to his coverage responsibility

Rodgers then goes to his next read, the 2nd Safety. Here is where the play design works to perfection. The Play Action and Randall Cobb’s Post-Dig route has drawn the attention of the 2nd Safety. Even though the Cornerback is in good position to play the route, the 2nd Safety comes up to play the route because he does not feel his Deep-Half is threatened. In this freeze frame, it is not, because Jordy Nelson is stemming toward the corner. Vikings Safety Harrison Smith (#22) commits to this stem and breaks on the route

GIve credit to the Packers’ Offensive Line; this is a long developing play, and without them Rodgers would not be able to go through his progression in a clean pocket for this much time. Rodgers sees the 2nd Safety breaking towards Randall Cobb, but knows Jordy Nelson is going to break back to the Post. Rodgers baits the 2nd Safety into believing he wants to throw the ball to Cobb, which creates a giant void behind the 2nd Safety

In addition to the great Offensive Line play, Packers WR Jordy Nelson (#87) sets up Vikings Safety Harrison Smith with a great route. At this point, 1/2 of the field is completely vacant, and Nelson has beat the safety. The video below puts together the progression of the play, first in slow motion, then standard speed:

The Sting Route combined with the Dig can be used as a 1 safety or 2 safety beater. Against Cover 1 or 3, the offense reads the single high safety. If the single high safety stays deep, the dig underneath is the throw, and if the safety bites up, the Sting route is the throw.

However, against Cover 2 either the Quarterback must control the backside safety with play action and his eyes, or the dig route must occupy him to create a 1 on 1 matchup with the safety defending the Sting route.

Many factors go into this Touchdown. Aaron Rodgers shows why he is one of the very best Quarterbacks in the game, the Offensive Line protects him for ample time, and Nelson runs a great sting route. Other NFL Analysts breaking down the Sting Route (#8).

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