When the Patriots have the ball

Expect the Patriots to spend their first couple drives combining fast paced tempo with information gathering. The Patriots use motion and non-traditional sets early to analyze the defense. For example, the Patriots line up fullback James Develin or a running back out wide to see who goes out to cover him. If a linebacker goes with the back, it’s man coverage. If a corner stays with the back, it’s zone coverage. From there, Brady picks the best matchup.

This will help diagnose the Falcons relatively simple defensive scheme. The Falcons primarily play Cover 1 or Cover 3, and don’t blitz often. Although the Falcons have blitzed more frequently during the playoffs, I don’t expect them to blitz Brady a ton in Super Bowl 51. Nor do I expect the Falcons to sit back in Cover 3 and let Brady pick apart zone coverage. Instead, the only consistent strategy for beating the Patriots in the playoffs has been pressure with 4, preferably up the middle.

The Houston Texans gave the most recent blueprint for how the Falcons can accomplish this. While only rushing 4 or 5, they lined up both Jadeveon Clowney (#90) and Whitney Mercilus (#59) over Patriots center David Andrews and rookie guard Joe Thuney throughout the game to cause pressure up the middle:

The Falcons can do the same with Vic Beasley consistently and use Dwight Freeney in this manner on obvious passing downs. They could also accomplish the same goal by twisting Vic Beasley from the outside.

Against Cover 1 and 3, look for the Patriots to go to their Post-Wheel-Out combination:

Credit: Matt Bowen, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18609488/illustrating-new-england-patriots-go-plays-josh-mcdaniels-super-bowl-li-2016-nfl-playoffs

Against Cover 3, the safety and cornerback will take the two deep routes. This presents a problem for the underneath coverage; they must react to the wheel initially, leaving an opening for the out route. The Patriots had great success with this play against the Steelers:

The play is also a good scheme against Cover 1 because the deep safety will be occupied by one of the deep routes and Edelman will draw man coverage on an out route:

Another key will be how the Falcons decide to play Empty formation. Against the Packers in the NFC championship game, they largely played Cover 2-man with some bracket Cover 1 as well. Look for the Patriots to run their Hoss Y-Juke concept from Empty. If the Falcons don’t line up anybody on #3 strong or don’t have a wall defender on Edelman’s in breaking route, he’ll have a huge day:

Finally, with the Patriots being as multiple as they are, look for 6 lineman sets to run the ball. The Patriots have implemented this strategy against teams they deem to be undersized on defense, like the Colts. This could be especially useful if the the Falcons offense comes out hot and the Patriots want to slow the game down and get their defense time to rest and adjust.

When the Falcons have the ball

When the Falcons have the ball, it’s all about the running backs. Yes, Julio Jones is all-world, but the versatility of their running backs is what makes them a historically great offense. To win Super Bowl 51, the Patriots will have to do two things on defense: set the edge in the run game, and account for the Falcons dynamic running backs in the passing game.

The Falcons are primarily an outside zone team, and setting the edge could determine the outcome of the game. If the Patriots linebackers consistently over pursue or the Falcons are able to reach the edge defender, the Falcons will have success in the run game and be able to set up big plays down the field with play action. If the Patriots are able to maintain gap discipline, string out plays, and not over pursue, they can neutralize the run game along with play action.

Look for Patriots like Jabaal Sheard, Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, and Chris Long to constantly attempt to collision tackles and tight ends to create a new line of scrimmage in the backfield. When Atlanta runs outside zone or their crack toss from under center or shotgun, watch the edge instead of the running back or the ball– it’ll tell you how the play will end up long before the running back gets there.

Credit: Matt Bowen, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/18585391/illustrating-atlanta-falcons-go-plays-kyle-shanahan-super-bowl-li-2016-nfl-playoffs

The Falcons also use their running backs in the passing game better than any team in the NFL, with the highest target percentage of throws going to running backs in the NFL. Against Denver, one of the NFL’s best defenses, the Falcons repeatedly motioned to empty formation with Tevin Coleman (#26) and Devonta Freeman (#24) going from the backfield to the slot and creating mismatches:

In the example below, the Falcons are able to identify the coverage by putting a tight end and the fullback out wide to the right. With a linebacker coming out on the fullback, Matt Ryan knows its man coverage underneath. A linebacker also comes out to cover Tevin Coleman, and the safety widens to the three receiver side. Ryan hits Tevin Coleman for a touchdown on a seam route:

The Patriots have a few options on how to defend the shift to empty. They likely will have an automatic check to either Cover 2 or Cover 2-man. They could also drop defensive lineman in coverage to try and take away underneath routes. To counter, the Falcons could potentially use Coleman and Freeman together and shift them both from the backfield to out wide. This would give the Falcons a run threat to start with two running backs in the backfield, but then also force the Patriots to defend an empty set with both Falcons backs.

The Patriots will also have to deal with the Falcons running backs catching the ball from the backfield. If the Patriots are in man coverage, it may be best for the Patriots to keep a safety on Falcon running backs as opposed to linebackers. In the divisional round against Seattle, the Falcons ran a beautiful RB corner route against Seattle’s Cover 3:

With only 3 defenders on the left side of the picture, the Falcons attack the coverage with 4 routes. The corner carries the deep post, the flat defender takes the flat route, the strong safety comes up to Julio Jones dragging across the field, and this leaves Coleman wide open:

The key here is that there is over 3 seconds from snap to throw. This type of scheme will almost certainly result in somebody being open because regardless of coverage, the Falcons just have too many weapons from a personnel perspective to cover. To combat this, the Patriots front 4 will have to create enough pressure to disrupt Matt Ryan’s throwing lanes and line of vision.

Finally, the Patriots will have to decide how to matchup with the Falcons wideouts when they play man coverage. Like last week, expect Patrick Chung (#23) to have tight end man coverage duties, whether that be on Austin Hooper (#81) or Levine Toilolo (#80). Expect Malcolm Butler (#21) to cover Taylor Gabriel (#18) when he is on the field. Eric Rowe (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), and Butler will all get their chance to cover Julio Jones in spurts with some sort of help from Devin McCourty (#32) or Duron Harmon (#30). How the Patriots use McCourty will be particularly interesting. With so many weapons, McCourty’s versatility and ability to play man to man as well as deep safety will be invaluable.

Super Bowl 51 should be fascinating from an X’s and O’s perspective. Prediction: Patriots 34, Falcons 27.

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WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

The zone run game has given the Patriots problems, most recently against Baltimore in the Divisional Round (24 carries for 129 yards). While Seattle primarily runs zone, they use more inside zone and cut defensive lineman less efficiently. Most teams who run the football well have a dominant offensive line; but this isn’t the case for Seattle. Marshawn Lynch’s “beast mode” runs overshadow the fact that the Seahawks offensive line isn’t overly powerful or big.

The Seahawks will likely see a variety of Front-7 looks from the Patriots, including a true 3-4, with Vince Wilfork (#75) playing a 0 technique, Alan Branch (#97) and Sealver Siliga (#96) at Defensive End, Rob Ninkovich (#50) and Chandler Jones (#95) at Outside Linebacker, and Jamie Collins (#91) and Dont’a Hightower (#54) at Inside Linebacker. Look for (#55) Akeem Ayers to also play some outside linebacker in this look. This defensive front gives both teams advantages: While the 3-4 gives the Patriots both athleticism and versatility with 4 linebackers as well as over 1,000 pounds of stout mass on the defensive line against the run, it undoubtedly sacrifices the ability to get any pass rush against Russell Wilson.

The chess game will be particularly important when the Seahawks are in the Shotgun. Because the zone read such a dangerous threat, how the Patriots respond to it will be crucial to the outcome of the game. Expect the Patriots to take away Russell Wilson on the zone read and make him hand the ball off nearly every time. The first way this can be done is the feather technique. Below is an example of the feather technique, where the last defender on the line of scrimmage (#58 Thomas Davis) makes Russell Wilson hand the ball off by slow playing the read. Meanwhile, all the defensive lineman rip to their right hard, making all gaps accounted for. Once Marshawn Lynch has the ball, Davis can fill in the last gap for a one yard gain. (This is against a 4-6 Bear look, which the Seahawks may also see.)

The problem with feathering or slow playing the Zone Read is that it can leave the last defender on the line of scrimmage in a passive position. It also leaves him susceptible to concepts, such as split zone (seen below) that look like zone read, but take advantage of the feather technique’s passiveness:

What the Patriots could also do is aggressively take away the QB run option from Russell Wilson by flying fast downhill and making Wilson make a read quickly. Below isn’t the same exact type of play, (Counter vs. Zone) but Terrell Suggs (#55 on Baltimore) shows how playing fast downhill at the Quarterback can disrupt plays as the unblocked last defender on the line of scrimmage:

Seattle could respond to this type of approach from the Patriots by moving to a double tight end set, making it more difficult for the defense to keep a defender outside of the Tight End, and making it more difficult to play the zone read aggressively. The look below gives Seattle 9 in the box against Carolina’s 7, and the Defensive End let’s Wilson get outside because he does not attack Russell Wilson’s outside shoulder:

With respect to the passing game, expect Darrelle Revis to match up primarily with Doug Baldwin and follow him around the field. Brandon Browner will likely cover Jermaine Kearse (#15) for some of the game, but also expect designated T.Y. Hilton stopper (#25) Kyle Arrington to get some time matched up against the speedy Kearse with Safety help. When Arrington is on Kearse, this could leave Browner to cover speedy Seahawk Tight End Luke Willson (#82).

The Seattle passing game vs. the Patriots secondary isn’t necessarily about X’s and O’s, but a game of attrition: the Patriots will likely sell out to the stop the run and try and contain Russell Wilson instead of outright rushing him. The Patriots secondary is able to cover for long periods of time, while Russell Wilson is excellent extending plays and finding open Wide Receivers. This is a strength on strength, and will likely decide the game: who can win the scramble drill– will New England be able to cover when Wilson extends the play, or will his Receivers find a way to get open?

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The combination of two weeks to prepare and the simplicity of Seattle’s Defensive scheme should make for an interesting New England game plan. The 2012 Patriots vs. Seahawks game featured almost 60 throws for Tom Brady, a ton of empty formations and almost 400 yards passing (The most Seattle has given up in the Legion of Boom era). New England had success throwing underneath with various schemes including their Y-stick and slant/flat combinations.

On the other hand, if Seattle’s defense has any vulnerability, it’s that the Front 7 is slightly undersized and built on speed. New England could run right at the Seattle defense, as all of Seattle’s losses this season had their opponents rushing for 100 or more yards.

Overall, I anticipate New England will implement aspects of both game plans depending on down + distance and field position. Expect New England to swing back and forth between Empty sets and Power and Iso looks with multiple tight ends and Fullback James Develin (#46) isolated on Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (#54). Running the ball will also test Seahawks All-Pro Safety Earl Thomas (#29) injured shoulder. Because Seattle plays so simple schematically, New England could attack and keep Seattle off balance by making the Seahawks defend two completely different styles of football. It also gives the Patriots flexibility to adjust to the scoreboard.

Seattle’s elite pass defense has struggled against a few concepts this year, including Post-Wheel, Switch Verticals, and Seams paired with out and ups:

Courtesy of Matt Bowen (Bleacher Report)

These concepts all have something in common: It exploits the ultra aggressive nature of Seattle’s Cover 3, where Cornerbacks match vertical releases and essentially play man-to-man after 10 yards and also try to undercut seam routes. This puts immense pressure on the linebackers to carry wheel routes and double moves. Of course, Seattle will be well aware of this weakness. In order for New England to take advantage of it, the Patriots could include a play action wrinkle to freeze linebackers, as well as use Rob Gronkowski as a decoy. The play below is a perfect example: The top of the screen features Gronk running a seam route while Tight End Tim Wright (#81) runs a wheel route and is also wide open. If this type of play action can freeze linebackers, and Gronk draws the attention of the Deep 1/3 corner, the Patriots could find huge plays up the sideline:

The Patriots could also attack the seams, but must set up Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola underneath first. The Patriots certainly looked to the San Diego vs. Seattle tape for hints on how to attack Seattle. Many point to Antonio Gates 3 Touchdowns that day, but Danny Woodhead and Eddie Royal had 11 catches that day and provided crucial 3rd down conversions. In the 2012 Seattle/New England game Wes Welker came up with 10 catches for 138 yards and a TD. (Precedent for smaller, shiftier receivers succeeding against Seattle). The following play is a great example of how New England can isolate the Tight End via the Dakota formation, attack the seams, but also open up a versatile running back underneath for a big gain:

If the Patriots can get Earl Thomas and Cam Chancellor to come up to play the underneath routes from Vereen, Edelman, and Amendola, they will be able to attack the seams. In the play below, Safety Cam Chancellor freezes up for just a split second to cover Panthers Running Back Jonathan Stewart (#28) out of the back field, opening up the seam behind him:

Finally, as I’ve wrote about before, the Seahawks seem to move Richard Sherman inside to the slot when they feel the biggest receiving threat is there:

New England can find out early in the game if the Seahawks will move around Richard Sherman by putting Shane Vereen or Rob Gronkowski on the outside with Julian Edelman in the slot. What they will do with this matchup depends on if Edelman can beat Sherman consistently. This will be especially interesting given Sherman’s arm injury.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One interesting statistic of note: Seattle Punter Jon Ryan allowed the lowest number of punts returned this year, while Julian Edelman lead the league with 19.3 yards per return. Look for this strength vs. strength match up to be a key factor in field position and impact the game in a big way.

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WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The Colts are almost a new team on the offensive side of the ball; since the 42-20 loss to New England, Boom Herron (#36) has replaced Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at Running Back, Donte Moncrief (#10) has emerged as a go to Wide Receiver, Tight End Dwayne Allen (#83) is healthy, and future Hall of Fame WR Reggie Wayne (#87) has become severely hampered with a torn triceps and hobbled groin. Additionally, the Colts have swapped and replaced two new offensive lineman into the mix.

The Colts did an excellent job last week of protecting Andrew Luck against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, while the Patriots pass rush was abysmal against the Ravens, recording 0 sacks on 45 pass attempts. The Colts do not have a strong running game, so look for them to spread it out in Empty formations and use QB Andrew Luck as a run threat. The Patriots can counter this and improve their pass rush by using DE/LB Akeem Ayers (#55) more often. Ayers only played one snap against the Ravens, but this is because the Patriots stayed in base defense to counter the Ravens zone run offense. The Patriots will almost certainly be in Nickel/Sub-Packages more often this week and use Ayers as pass rusher as well as a coverage linebacker.

One of the most telling signs of New England’s defensive game-plan will be how Brandon Browner is used. Browner was hobbled with a knee injury last week, and was beat several times by the Ravens’ Torrey Smith. In the Week 11 matchup against the Colts, Browner spent plenty of time covering Browner, with poor results. It could be a big mistake to have Browner cover Fleener or Moncrief, as both looked like they could easily get open against Browner (Browner is matched up on the bottom of the screen both times):

Instead, it would probably be best to use Browner on Wide Receivers/Tight Ends who are less shifty in space, such as Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Allen caught a TD last week while boxing out Denver’s Aqib Talib, and Browner is the best match up to prevent this from happening.

In the Week 11 game, Darrelle Revis almost exclusively matched up against Reggie Wayne. With Wayne hobbled, it will likely be another Patriots Defensive Back. (Probably #26 Logan Ryan). Revis will be used in two ways throughout the game: On T.Y. Hilton, or on Donte Moncrief. When Revis is not on Hilton, expect the speedy Kyle Arrington (#25) to cover Hilton with some sort of Safety help.

Finally, expect the Colts to attack the Patriots Cover 1/Cover 3 schemes and preventing press coverage by bunching Receivers and using motion & crossing routes, as the Colts had some success with this in Week 11, and the Ravens certainly had success with this strategy last week:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots played a whopping 37 snaps in Week 11 with a 6th offensive lineman. The results were uncanny, with Jonas Gray running for over 200 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Expect New England to run the ball with success, but not nearly as much, for a few reasons: Colts DT Arthur Jones is back from an injury, and Patriots Center Bryan Stork is out with a knee injury this week. This shuffle on the offensive and defensive lines will make it less easy for New England to run the ball all over Indy.

Instead, expect New England to attack the Colts aggressive man-to-man defense more through the air this time around. Colts Safety Laron Landry (#30) matched up with Denver’s Julius Thomas last week. Patriots Rob Gronkowski is a tougher cover than Thomas, and the Patriots can exploit the matchup like the Broncos did:

Because of the Colts affinity for man coverage and blitzing, look for Patriots RB Shane Vereen (#34) to get loose on a big gain in the passing game. The Broncos had a perfect opportunity by aligning the Tight End and Running Back together at the top of the screen, but somehow Peyton Manning misses a wide open Running Back on the wheel route:

If Gronkowski is split out wide, the Patriots love the hitch route against off coverage. However, if the Colts play press coverage with Landry like they did against Denver, the Patriots will certainly look to cash in by pairing Landry and a Linebacker in coverage against Vereen and Gronkowski.

Colts Cornerback Vontae Davis (#21) also is a key player on the Colts Defense to watch for. Davis played an excellent game last week and shut down both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas at times. Expect him to match up against both Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, depending on down and distance. He could also occasionally be used to cover Gronkowski, but the Colts must be careful with this matchup, as Gronkowski is a viable run blocker. Tom Brady could see this matchup and check to a run play, leaving  Vontae Davis in the box against a lineman. The play below shows exactly why Shane Vereen may be the one in for a big game: He can play off how the Colts decide to treat Gronkowski and benefit in both the passing and running attack.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL:

Green Bay cut the field in half when they chose not to attack the right side of the field to avoid Richard Sherman Week 1; Green Bay aligned #11 Jarrett Boykin to the right on the vast majority of snaps. The Packers must attack all parts of the field in order to be successful this week.  While the Packers will almost certainly line up #87 Jordy Nelson to the right more often, the emergence of rookie #17 Davonte Adams gives Green Bay a viable threat even when Jordy Nelson is on the left side of the field. However, attacking the right side of the field doesn’t necessarily mean attacking Sherman 1 on 1. Look for Green Bay to manipulate formations to move Sherman away from the outside most Receiver. Dallas was able to do this from a Trips tight formation, with the TE as the lone eligible receiver to the left, and 3 Wideouts to the right:

Sherman moves with Dez Bryant to the slot

This formation moves Richard Sherman to the slot against Dez Bryant. The Packers Wide Receiving core is deeper than the Cowboys’ WRs, and this alignment would put the Seahawks in a bigger bind than against Dallas. If Seattle aligns Richard Sherman over Jordy Nelson in the slot, Sherman is not at his absolute best without the sideline as a defender. On the other hand, if Sherman stays to the outside, Green Bay can use #18 Randall Cobb, Adams or Nelson on the right side of the field without ever testing Sherman. This play results in a 20+ yard gain with the whole field to work with, and a penalty on Sherman:

The trips tight formation makes Seattle’s Cover 3 slightly more challenging to play. The play above is Cover 1, and Green Bay should try to exploit it like Dallas did. Another way Green Bay can attack the right side of the field is by splitting either Running Back #27 Eddie Lacy or #44 James Starks out wide with Randall Cobb in the slot right:

Sherman aligns against Welker in the slot with the RB to the outside

In the picture above, the Broncos place a Running Back out wide to move Sherman to the slot. If Green Bay can manipulate formations to get Randall Cobb on Sherman, especially in the slot, this is the most favorable matchup for Green Bay. Like other big corners, the hardest matchup isn’t necessarily the best or biggest Receiver; in fact, the shiftier, quicker types give Sherman slightly more trouble.

As for the running game, Green Bay must establish it early. Eddie Lacy was unable to finish the game Week 1 with a concussion, but his presence will be huge on Sunday. He started off the game gaining yardage while breaking tackles and being agile enough to juke out the best safety in the NFL, Earl Thomas; no small task:

Runs like this are essential for multiple reasons: Green Bay will probably spend 95% of the game in either Shotgun or Pistol due to Aaron Rodgers’ hurt calf. The Packers must be able to run the ball regardless. Lacy is a versatile back: he is a viable threat in the passing game, can run defenders over, and also can make defenders miss. Look for Lacy and Seattle’s Cam Chancellor (#31) to provide some of the hardest collisions the NFL has seen all year. If Lacy can stay healthy for the whole game, look for the Packers to improve on the 16 point output from Week 1.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL:

Seattle drove Green Bay crazy Week 1 with various versions of Jet Sweep and read option. However, with Percy Harvin long gone, Seattle will come up with new wrinkles to attack the Green Bay run defense. Green Bay’s run defense has improved greatly over the course of the season: Since Clay Matthews moved to Inside Linebacker, Green Bay is in the top-10 against the run. (GB was in the bottom 10 prior). Green Bay has also recently gotten major contributions out of Defensive Lineman #76 Mike Daniels in stopping the run. Daniels will sometimes be lined up against a hurting Max Unger (Seattle’s Center, #60) and could be the key to getting interior penetration against Seattle’s run game with efforts like this, causing Running Backs to hesitate and freeing up Clay Matthews from the middle:

This matchup is key and simply about execution, not X’s and O’s. Seattle will look to dominate the line of scrimmage and Daniels like in the Week 1 matchup:

Seattle will certainly use some read option, but look for them to use the split zone concept as well. Split zone may look like zone read and is meant to freeze linebackers, but the Quarterback is only a decoy as a running threat. It is blocked similar to Zone read in the sense that a defender is left unblocked at the snap of the ball and the Tackle can aggressively down block. However, a Tight End or fullback will come across the formation to block the defensive end or linebacker. The direction of the Running Back and the Quarterback’s action will make it look like Read Option, and create a natural crease for the blocker and the running back to cut back. Seen below is a Week 1 Split Zone run to perfection. Green Bay’s Clay Matthews (#52) plays this as zone read, only to be blocked completely out of the play by Luke Willson (#82) who is coming across the formation. Russell Wilson (#3) sells read option action, but is never actually a running threat:

Finally, when it comes to the passing game, look for the key matchup to be #56 Julius Peppers against banged up Rookie Right Tackle #68 Justin Britt. (If Britt can’t play due to injury, Alvin Bailey would be next in line). Peppers has been on fire recently, forcing fumbles from both Tony Romo and Demarco Murray last week. His pass rush ability must make Russell Wilson uncomfortable in the pocket.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL 

In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.

Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary

The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.

With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:

When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:

While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.

The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).

As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).

One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.

 WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL 

The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).

Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):

However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:

The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:

If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:

Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.

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