Week 14: 3rd Quarter, 4th & 19 from KC 35

On 4th & 19 from their own 35 the Chiefs line up in a standard spread pro punt formation, with three blockers to each side of the center, a personal protector, and a gunner split out wide to each side. The ball is on the left hash. The Patriots have eight men up, a jammer on each gunner, and one returner. Although they start with four men on each side, the Patriots shift to six right and two left from the punter’s perspective just before the snap with almost no space between them:

But the Chiefs don’t adjust in any manner. Even if the long snapper and the entire right side of the punt team block the most inside man, the Patriots would have two outside rushers free. Instead, the right guard steps out to block (#18) Matthew Slater, and (#43) Nate Ebner runs free up the middle to block the punt:

And it looks like (#29) Justin Bethel would have reached the block point as well. So what could the Chiefs have done differently? First, the personal protector likely should have switched to the overloaded side. He may not have because the punter is left footed. Or because the Chiefs called a fake punt but apparently weren’t on the same page. A 6-2 overload is a great look to fake a punt against! Next, the Chiefs could have brought in their gunner to a tight split. This creates a greater distance to the block point for the unblocked outside rusher.

Week 4: 6:30 left in 1st Quarter, 4th & 14 from Buf 32

The Bills line up in a standard punt formation. This time, the Patriots line up five left and four right:

Although the Bills’ punter is left footed, the personal protector is set to the right. This may be because the right outside jammer comes down late and rushes. But the jammer probably can’t get near the block point from so far outside, and the Bills could have tightened their own gunner’s split in response. Instead, a low snap allows for the unblocked Patriot (#27 J.C. Jackson) time to get there:

Week 12: 3rd Quarter, 5:51 remaining, 4th & 12 from Dal 30

The Patriots other two blocked punts stem from their execution combined with their opponent’s miscues. Below, the Cowboys are in the same punt formation. The Patriots have five rushers left and three right, but the Cowboys are prepared. With the personal protector toward the lefty punter’s foot they can matchup and block both sides:

But Matthew Slater (#18) beats the left tackle, bends hard, and blocks the punt. Note Slater’s excellent form in avoiding a penalty—he does not dive in front of the punter. Instead, his body and momentum are off to the side, with his arm low and extended to block the punt:

Week 6:06 remaining in the 1st Quarter, 4th & 9 at NYG 19

The blocked punt against the Giants is pure execution and effort from (#38) Brandon Bolden. The Patriots don’t appear to have a block scheme on. Given the two left five right alignment with multiple jammers on the right gunner, a left return is the most likely call. The Giants are not outnumbered. But Bolden bull rushes aggressively, bends towards the block point, and pushes the right tackle back far enough to block the kick:

A few trends emerge from the four blocked punts. All four were on 4th & 9 or more with the ball was placed inside the opponent’s own 35 yard line. This allows punt block teams to be more aggressive for two reasons. First, a running into the kicker penalty does not cause a first down. Second, the punting team is less likely to try a fake because of the combination of the yardage to gain and field position.

Three had an overload rush to the punter’s foot. And all four blocked punts occurred in relatively “innocuous” time situations in the 1st and 3rd quarters of games. This is an important takeaway for coaches and fans alike; “must have” blocked punts are the most difficult to execute because the punt team is quite aware of the situation.

One other significant observation: none of the blocked punts had particularly elaborate schemes outside of shifting before the snap and outnumbering the punt team. None, for example, had multiple twists to cause confusion:

Credit: Chuck Zodda, http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfl/special-teams-film-study-nfl/2015/12/10/eagles-punt-block-exploited-patriots-protection/

Sometimes execution and technique reign supreme; the Patriots take excellent angles to the punter and know the block point. They also have ideal hand placement keep themselves in position to avoid roughing the punter. Special Teams is a priority in New England.

Finally, these examples also provide lessons for punt teams. You must have a plan when an opponent shifts pre-snap, whether it be moving personal protectors, tightening gunners, or being aggressive and calling a fake.

The post Breaking Down the 2019 Patriots’ 4 Blocked Punts appeared first on Syed Schemes.

The Eagles show a six man pressure with Cover 0 man to man behind it. There’s not much defensive disguise here; the Falcons being in empty makes the Eagles declare their responsibilities. Although one of the linebackers could theoretically drop into coverage, allowing the Falcons to account for each of the rushers with no deep safety and true man to man on Julio Jones is a recipe for disaster. Based on this information, the Falcons audible to a tunnel screen. Instead of trying to block the Eagles six rushers with 5 lineman, the Falcons have left tackle (#70) Jake Matthews release and create a 3 on 2 situation to the short side of the field:

Mohammad Sanu outside releases and picks up his block. The Falcons offensive line blocks inside out and buys Matt Ryan just enough time to get the ball out. Most importantly, Jake Matthews releases and pancakes his assignment, allowing Julio Jones to bend inside and turn on the afterburners for a touchdown:

Here, it looks like the Falcons baited Schwartz into bringing max pressure against an empty formation. This play works for a few reasons: first, Matt Ryan quickly sees the look he wants and checks into the tunnel screen. Second, its important to run the tunnel screen to the short side of the field and to the two wide receiver side. This minimizes the time Matt Ryan must hold onto the ball, the distance the ball must travel, and the chance for a missed block. This was a great example of chess on the football field with the game on the line.

The post Falcons Tunnel Screen Audible appeared first on Syed Schemes.

1. Game situation: 1st Quarter, 5:23, 1st & 10 at KC23, 3-3

After tight end Demetrius Harris (#84) motions to the left side of the formation, the Chiefs are running the following route combination with play action:

The Patriots are in Cover 1. Because Harris is staying in to block, Patrick Chung (#23) can act as an extra pass defender. As for the front 7, one consistent strategy from the Patriots was to have box defenders stand and/or move around pre-snap, making it more difficult for Mahomes to decide protection schemes and discern who was rushing. Here, defensive end Trey Flowers (#98) is also aligned extra wide to jam Travis Kelce (#87) at the line:

Post snap, the Patriots rush four and linebacker Dont’a Hightower (#54) is sucked in by the play action to Kareem Hunt (#27). This normally clears throwing windows, but Hightower is able to make an incredible recovery to undercut Travis Kelce’s route and intercept the pass. While watching live, I thought Hightower had faked a blitz, dropped, and fooled Mahomes. After film review, I think it’s likely that Mahomes discounted Hightower based on his reaction to the play action. Mahomes held onto the ball for a split second longer because of Chung’s presence, and Hightower flipped his hips in time to make a great play:

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Mahomes also misses Sammy Watkins (#14) on the deep over route. Duron Harmon is the deep Cover 1 safety and is playing outside the right hash, presumably because Tyreek Hill is the outside receiver on the play. Nobody else is on the left side of the field, giving Mahomes tons of grass to air the ball out and let Watkins run under it:

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2. Game situation: 3rd Quarter, 13:39, 3rd & 2 at KC33, 24-9 New England

On the first drive of the 3rd quarter, the Patriots force a third and short with a 24-9 lead. Pre-snap, the Patriots are showing a look that could be a blitz with man coverage, Cover 1 or Cover 5, behind it. However, when Tyreek Hill motions across the formation, Jason McCourty widens with him and no defender follows him. This is generally a zone indicator. The Patriots have 6 defenders up at the line of scrimmage to cause confusion in pass protection. Tyreek Hill takes an inside release and runs a deep curl. The Chiefs route combination also includes a pivot and dig combination, sometimes referred to as “X Follow,” with Kelce running a spot route and Hunt swinging out of the backfield:

Post-snap, the Patriots are in Cover 2. They rush 3, and Dont’a Hightower tries to rob underneath Travis Kelce’s spot or short hook route. The initial coverage is excellent, and Mahomes is forced to escape the pocket to his right. Here is where Hill’s speed comes into play—with no outside vertical threat, deep half safety Devin McCourty clamps down on Hill. But when Mahomes escapes, Hunt converts his route from a swing to a wheel route, and nobody is back deep:

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This play and throw from Mahomes is simply incredible. Cornerback Jason McCourty actually plays this pretty well, sinking with the route and forcing a precise deep throw while on the run. If the ball isn’t deep enough or too far inside, it’s either intercepted or broken up:

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3. Game situation: 4th Quarter, 4:33, 3rd & 8 at KC27, 37-33 New England

On a crucial third down with the game on the line, the Patriots once again tried to confuse Mahomes pre-snap with box defenders standing and moving. The Patriots show Cover 0, with no middle of field help. However, Hightower and Kyle Van Noy(#53) show blitz, occupy lineman, and then drop off for any crossers or shallow routes:

Tyreek Hill ends up open, but the Patriots accomplish their goal by forcing an underthrow off Mahomes’ back foot. With better footwork, it’s likely a huge play:

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4. Game situation: 4th Quarter, 7:12, 1st & 10 at KC24, 33-30 Kansas City

At this point, a fake bubble/swing screen with a seam or wheel behind it is a huge play in the NFL every week. Here, the Chiefs are in Cover 3. Julian Edelman motions to the backfield and runs a bubble/swing screen, with Chris Hogan running up the seam:

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Both the underneath hook defender and the safety fly up toward Edelman, leaving Hogan wide open behind them. Note from the end zone angle how well Brady uses his shoulders and eyes to sell the fake before throwing the ball to a wide open Hogan:

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5. Game situation: 4th Quarter, 3:50, 1st & 10 at NE21, 37-33 New England

With an opportunity to put the game away with a touchdown or run out the clock, the Patriots come out in 21 personnel. The Chiefs aim to stop the run with a 3-4 front and are playing Cover 1. Brady sees the defensive look and checks the call to a play action:

Post snap, because the defensive back Jordan Lucas (#24) is so close to the line, the Patriots left tackle blocks him. Gronk runs underneath the block, and is wide open for a huge play. It’s hard to believe this is how the Patriots drew it up. But it is plausible they are coached to do this if a man to man defender is this close to the line of scrimmage. I’ve never quite seen this in an NFL game before:

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6. Situational football

Finally, a note about situational football at the end of the first half. The last four minutes of the first half decide a game more often than the average fan thinks. Good teams consistently score just before half and get the ball right back to start the third quarter, and also make sure their opponents don’t “double up.” Teams who mismanage the clock or turn the ball over before half miss out on “double up” opportunities. This is precisely what happened to KC, who was down 24-9 with :17 left on New England’s 15 yard line. They had 1 timeout and were getting the ball back after half. On 1st & 10, Mahomes turns the ball over on this play:

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Getting the ball back after half and down 15 points against a potent offense means Mahomes has to throw this ball away and make sure the Chiefs score to get the opportunity to double up.

Unfortunately, I learned tragic news this week. Kyle Janeczek, one of the players I had the privilege of coaching, passed away suddenly. He was attending Dartmouth medical school, and was one of the kindest smartest people I knew. Kyle was also an incredibly gifted athlete who made me a better person and coach. I hadn’t posted an X’s & O’s breakdown in a while, and reminisced this week on Kyle’s successes as a football player and person. Kyle, this one’s for you buddy, RIP.

The post Key Plays from Week 6: New England v. Kansas City appeared first on Syed Schemes.

Eagles v. Falcons

The play call on Atlanta’s do or die 4th and Goal from Philly’s 2-yard line is understandably what everyone is talking about. After motioning Tight End (#80) Levine Toilolo across the formation, the Falcons ran sprint right with two short outs:

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It’s easy to second guess a play call after watching it on TV, but there’s a lot not to like about this call with the season on the line from the two yard line:

The first issue I have with the play call is personnel choice–Atlanta has Fullback (#40) Derrick Coleman lined up out wide at the bottom of the screen. A running back out wide by itself isn’t a bad choice (it can help a Quarterback assess coverages). However, Atlanta should have had its best playmakers on the field, which certainly includes Running Back (#24) Devonta Freeman.

The second issue I have is sprinting out on 4th and Goal; I don’t like cutting the field in half without one of the following: 1) some sort of rub/pick concept, 2) a flat route that can turn into a wheel if not open at first, or 3) some sort of throwback option, like below:

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Without any of these, the Eagles’ defense has defended almost 2/3 of the field without doing anything, and there is no recourse if Matt Ryan’s first read isn’t open.

This 4th and Goal also could have been a game winning Field Goal had it not been for an inexcusable end of first half mistake from Atlanta. With seven (:07) seconds left to play, the Eagles had the ball at the 50 yard line and no timeouts remaining. Understandably, Julio Jones is on the field in the deep middle in case Philly decides to take a shot at the end zone. Atlanta is also prepared with four defenders pre-snap for Philly to run a 3-man Flood concept to try and throw an out route and get out of bounds in time for a field goal attempt.:

Players #1 (Linebacker Deion Jones) and #3 (Cornerback Desmond Trufant) in the graphic allow for the intermediate out to be completed and out of bounds in six seconds. First, Jones hops inside and does not defend the sideline, even though any completion in the field of play would end the half. Then, Trufant sinks to the deep out, even though another defender is over the top and the clock would have run out if the ball was thrown to the deepest out.

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The next play, the Eagles make a field goal as time expires. Understanding game situation and clock management cost Atlanta on two separate occasions in the divisional round.

Jaguars v. Steelers

Jacksonville offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett called a near flawless game on Sunday, but my favorite play was their final Touchdown with 4:34 to play in the 4th:

Jacksonville is in I-formation tight, with an extra Tight End to the right side of the formation. Pittsburgh is still in a 2-high Safety look, although the strong side Safety is playing with a staggered stance somewhat closer to the line of scrimmage. The Jaguars are running iso play action Fullback seam, otherwise affectionately known as “pop pass:”

The outer most Tight End takes a wide release and runs a fade to hold the Cornerback, while the play action sucks up the only two players in position to stop the play, leading to an easy touchdown:

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Patriots vs. Titans

The divisional round didn’t make the Patriots sweat, but they have added a small X’s & O’s wrinkle I’ve noticed a few times this year. Similar to a jet sweep or toss crack, New England has scored multiple times this year with a Running Back or Wide Receiver (usually Brandin Cooks) coming in motion and Tom Brady ‘dropping’ the ball to them as they run around the corner. Below, James White (#28) comes in motion slowly at first, and Titans Linebacker (#59) Wesley Woodyard follows, confirming it’s man-to-man coverage and a good look for the dropoff sweep. It’s possible the Patriots have a check out of this play if it isn’t man to man or against certain fronts: 

As long as Left Guard Joe Thuney can reach his gap and make sure the Defensive Tackle (Pro-bowler Jurrell Casey) doesn’t penetrate, New England has great look: down blocks by Gronk and Wide Receiver Chris Hogan (#15) with Nate Solder (#77) pulling around to lead the way on the Cornerback originally lined up over Hogan:

Thuney does his assignment, there are great down block angles, and James White is able to catch the ball at almost full speed for a relatively easy touchdown:

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Vikings vs. Saints

The game winning touchdown in the Vikings vs. Saints game began as the same exact situation as the Falcons vs. Eagles end of half scenario; there were ten seconds left and the Vikings had no timeouts, so any completion in the field of play would end the game. However, the Vikings were at their own 39 yard line, so a Hail Mary to the end zone was out of the question. The Vikings run the same play as the Eagles, a 3-man Flood concept:

We all know what happened next:

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It’s obvious Saints DB Marcus Williams misplays both Stephon Diggs and the ball. But the Saints coaching staff could have put the defense in a better position. First, given the game scenario, the absolute number one priority is “do not let the Vikings complete the ball and get out of bounds,” yet the Saints only have 3 defenders guarding the sideline. Instead, the Saints should have either rushed only 3 down lineman or pulled their Middle Linebacker much closer to the sideline and the bunched Vikings. The Saints already have 3 defenders to account for the backside Wide Receiver Adam Thielen and Running Back Jerrick McKinnon, and the Vikings can’t complete the ball in bounds, so the Middle Linebacker does nothing but cover grass.

Overall, there was a lot to learn on game management this weekend; football fans can only hope the championship round and the Super Bowl bring as much excitement as the divisional round.

The post 2017 Divisional Round Review appeared first on Syed Schemes.

Tosser

The Tosser pass game concept is a double slant combo from the same side of the field. The inside slant usually runs “fat,” or at a lower angle, while the outside runs “skinny,” or at a higher angle. Clemson struggled early, but was able to move the ball with tosser. On 2nd & 11 from their own 29, Clemson gets its first completion of the game on empty left tosser right early in the middle of the first quarter:

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Clemson window dresses by motioning to a slot left formation out of 11 personnel, but runs tosser again on the very next play. This time, Clemson completes the ball to the outside slant:

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Needing a completion after going down 14-0, Clemson completes the ball to the inside slant, once again out of 11 personnel and a slot left formation:

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More than 2 quarters later, Clemson faced one of the biggest plays of the national championship: 3rd and 3 on the edge of field goal range with just 25 seconds left in the game. They came back to the tosser concept in this key situation:

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This is a great example of how finding confidence in a play or two despite early struggles can be key. Although Clemson didn’t move the ball well early, they came back to a play they were confident in on one of the biggest plays of the season.

Empty Smash Divide

One of Clemson’s go to plays against 2-high is Empty Smash Divide. (Clemson had success with the concept against Alabama last year as well). Empty Smash divide is a five man route combination, with mirrored smash combos and a “divide” route. The divide route is meant to attack the middle of the field and split safeties:

Credit: Smart Football

On their first touchdown drive, Clemson goes to Empty Smash Divide on 3rd & 10 for a gain of 26:

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The end zone angle shows the intricacies of this particular completion. First, Alabama disguises its coverage by starting with a one high safety look. At the snap, the safeties split apart and provide an opening for the divide route. But Alabama still has a linebacker that will carry any vertical threat. The divide route (#16 TE Jordan Leggett) does an excellent job of giving an inside move and getting over Alabama’s linebacker (#10) to open up a huge throwing window:

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Deep in its own territory on 3rd & 6, Clemson needs to pick up a first down to avoid giving Alabama the ball with good field position and 2 timeouts. Alabama is likely playing Cover 5, but the Clemson wideouts beat man coverage and the divide route helps hold the safety:

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The end zone angle shows how the corner route opens up, and also shows that the divide route is once again there as well:

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Run Game

Clemson only had 91 yards on 42 attempts for an abysmal 2.2 yards per carry, but they had big gains on a series of similar runs. On their first play of the game, Clemson runs jet sweep action left and gives the running the ball on buck sweep right for a gain of 12:

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On its first touchdown of the game, Clemson runs jet action right with a QB lead sweep going left for an 8 yard score. Take note of running back (#9 Wayne Gallman) lead blocking with a big hit:

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Clemson combines the two plays from above for a huge gain of 15 late in the 4th quarter. Here, Clemson runs QB buck sweep right with a lead blocker and pre-snap jet action going left. Clemson repeats its buck sweep success from its first offensive play of the game, and Gallman once again throws an excellent lead block:

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Other

Clemson also had success with by completing numerous backside fades to the X wideout from Trips formation. Clemson also completed tunnel screens for gains of 45, 11, and 9, none of which were in 3rd and long situations. This gives further insight into how Clemson beat Bama.

The post How Clemson Beat Bama appeared first on Syed Schemes.

The Patriots Super Bowl 49 game plan began as expected, with New England lining up Tight End Rob Gronkowski extremely far out wide in order to see how Seattle would respond. The Patriots then motioned Julian Edelman across to the slot. This first play would give New England a ton of coverage information for a Touchdown later in the game:

Seattle occasionally moved Richard Sherman into the slot when they felt the Offense’s biggest threat was there, or when either a Tight End or Running back was the furthest outside Receiver. By lining up Gronk out extra wide and motioning Edelman, the Patriots were able to gather information even before running a play. First, the Patriots knew the Seahawks were willing to play against Gronk and the wide side of the field with only one defender, as deep 1/3 defender Kam Chancellor (Safety #31) is essentially in the middle of the field. The Patriots also see the Seahawks Cover 3 “Buzz” or Cover 1 “Lurk” drop down zone defender (In this case, #29 Safety Earl Thomas) playing towards the original 3 Receiver side and where Running Back Shane Vereen is. This last part regarding Shane Vereen will come in key later in the 1st half.

Vereen tied the Super Bowl record with 11 catches and converted key 3rd downs throughout the game. His biggest impact, however, may have been as a decoy on Gronk’s Touchdown before the 1st half. The Seahawks alternated their drop down Lurk/Buzz defender throughout the half between Chancellor and Thomas as well as to and away from Vereen. But Vereen had just gashed the Seahawks for a big catch and run, Julian Edelman had burnt backup Seahawks Cornerback Tharold Simon (#27) on the previous drive, and Gronkowski was unable to beat Kam Chancellor deep earlier in the game. With that, the Patriots lined up in Dakota formation, and Shane Vereen away from the Trips. The Seahawks were clearly in Cover 1 now, as Linebacker K.J. Wright lined up over Gronk in man technique, and Richard Sherman followed Julian Edelman across the formation. From here, all QB Tom Brady needed to know was who was the Deep Centerfield Safety, and who was the drop down Lurk Safety. It’s fairly easy to tell right before the snap that Kam Chancellor will be the deep middle defender towards the Trips side:

Once the ball is snapped, Earl Thomas flies down and only has his eyes on Vereen. Thomas doesn’t hesitate at all or pay any attention to Gronk, who is now truly 1 on 1 with K.J. Wright:

Brady almost certainly decided to go deep to Gronk on a Stutter-Fade route as soon as Earl Thomas took a step up pre-snap:

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It also appears that Linebacker Bobby Wagner has his eyes on Vereen out of the backfield. Given that it was 2nd and 5 with 36 seconds left, Seattle could have been calling for bracket coverage to prevent Vereen from picking up the first down and setting a trap for Brady. It’s also possible that Earl Thomas had seen enough of Vereen underneath and decided to fly up to make a quick tackle or even interception. Either way, Vereen served as a perfect decoy to exploit the 1 on 1 matchup the Patriots wanted.

Play Action on Slant-Flat leads to LaFell TD

The Patriots love their Slant-Flat combo, and ran it numerous times in the 2012 matchup against the Seahawks. Super Bowl 49 was no different, as New England went to Slant-Flat at least 5 times. I thought New England would go to its usual Cover 3 beaters with Play Action to help freeze linebackers, and this is exactly what happened.

With Danny Amendola clearing out Byron Maxwell on the flat route, the Slant route is open for a Touchdown, with only Bobby Wagner or Earl Thomas (squared in red above) in position to break up or drive on the route. However, the Play Action fake keeps their eyes in the backfield and freezes both players for a fraction of a second. The Play Action by no means “fools” Wagner or Thomas, but even a tenth of a second is the difference here, as you can see just how close Wagner gets to tipping the throw, and how Thomas may be able to jar the ball loose with a big hit:

New England’s Pass Heavy Playsheet

The Patriots ended up throwing the ball 50 times, but I don’t think this was the plan prior to the game. New England ran the ball with LeGarrette Blount 8 times in the first 13 minutes of the game, but only 6 times total in the last 47 minutes. The heavy tilt towards passing likely had to do with the gruesome forearm injury to Seattle Nickel Cornerback Jeremy Lane. After Lane got hurt, Byron Maxwell was moved into the slot, and #27 Tharold Simon was forced into action. The Patriots started with a more simple game plan, but as they seemingly always do, changed the plan on the fly: Just as they did against the Ravens left side of the Secondary, the Patriots decided to attack Simon, attack him mercilessly and often. The results were undeniable:

With all that, the Patriots brought back Lombardy Trophy #4 to Foxboro.

The post Analyzing how the Patriots Offense Manipulated Matchups in SB49 appeared first on Syed Schemes.

Butler attacked and drove hard downhill to make the interception. After the game, he eluded to the fact that his decisiveness in going for the interception was based on him anticipating the route combination/pick play from film study. He also said he had been beaten by the route in practice during that week.

With that in mind, I reviewed the last 12 weeks of Seattle’s season to get a better idea of what Butler would have watched prior to the game in order to react so instinctively to what he saw. I compiled any passing play with either a stack formation or a Wide Receiver running a slant or drag underneath another Wide Receiver:

The question is how many undrafted rookie free agents playing in the crucial final seconds of the Super Bowl would have studied enough to know what Seattle liked to run out of the Stack formation/Short Yardage, been able to recall enough of the film study exactly when needed, AND been decisive enough to go all out for the interception. The lesson? Film study pays off: it might make you famous one day.

The post How Malcolm Butler knew what Play was Coming on the Interception that Changed NFL History appeared first on Syed Schemes.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

The zone run game has given the Patriots problems, most recently against Baltimore in the Divisional Round (24 carries for 129 yards). While Seattle primarily runs zone, they use more inside zone and cut defensive lineman less efficiently. Most teams who run the football well have a dominant offensive line; but this isn’t the case for Seattle. Marshawn Lynch’s “beast mode” runs overshadow the fact that the Seahawks offensive line isn’t overly powerful or big.

The Seahawks will likely see a variety of Front-7 looks from the Patriots, including a true 3-4, with Vince Wilfork (#75) playing a 0 technique, Alan Branch (#97) and Sealver Siliga (#96) at Defensive End, Rob Ninkovich (#50) and Chandler Jones (#95) at Outside Linebacker, and Jamie Collins (#91) and Dont’a Hightower (#54) at Inside Linebacker. Look for (#55) Akeem Ayers to also play some outside linebacker in this look. This defensive front gives both teams advantages: While the 3-4 gives the Patriots both athleticism and versatility with 4 linebackers as well as over 1,000 pounds of stout mass on the defensive line against the run, it undoubtedly sacrifices the ability to get any pass rush against Russell Wilson.

The chess game will be particularly important when the Seahawks are in the Shotgun. Because the zone read such a dangerous threat, how the Patriots respond to it will be crucial to the outcome of the game. Expect the Patriots to take away Russell Wilson on the zone read and make him hand the ball off nearly every time. The first way this can be done is the feather technique. Below is an example of the feather technique, where the last defender on the line of scrimmage (#58 Thomas Davis) makes Russell Wilson hand the ball off by slow playing the read. Meanwhile, all the defensive lineman rip to their right hard, making all gaps accounted for. Once Marshawn Lynch has the ball, Davis can fill in the last gap for a one yard gain. (This is against a 4-6 Bear look, which the Seahawks may also see.)

The problem with feathering or slow playing the Zone Read is that it can leave the last defender on the line of scrimmage in a passive position. It also leaves him susceptible to concepts, such as split zone (seen below) that look like zone read, but take advantage of the feather technique’s passiveness:

What the Patriots could also do is aggressively take away the QB run option from Russell Wilson by flying fast downhill and making Wilson make a read quickly. Below isn’t the same exact type of play, (Counter vs. Zone) but Terrell Suggs (#55 on Baltimore) shows how playing fast downhill at the Quarterback can disrupt plays as the unblocked last defender on the line of scrimmage:

Seattle could respond to this type of approach from the Patriots by moving to a double tight end set, making it more difficult for the defense to keep a defender outside of the Tight End, and making it more difficult to play the zone read aggressively. The look below gives Seattle 9 in the box against Carolina’s 7, and the Defensive End let’s Wilson get outside because he does not attack Russell Wilson’s outside shoulder:

With respect to the passing game, expect Darrelle Revis to match up primarily with Doug Baldwin and follow him around the field. Brandon Browner will likely cover Jermaine Kearse (#15) for some of the game, but also expect designated T.Y. Hilton stopper (#25) Kyle Arrington to get some time matched up against the speedy Kearse with Safety help. When Arrington is on Kearse, this could leave Browner to cover speedy Seahawk Tight End Luke Willson (#82).

The Seattle passing game vs. the Patriots secondary isn’t necessarily about X’s and O’s, but a game of attrition: the Patriots will likely sell out to the stop the run and try and contain Russell Wilson instead of outright rushing him. The Patriots secondary is able to cover for long periods of time, while Russell Wilson is excellent extending plays and finding open Wide Receivers. This is a strength on strength, and will likely decide the game: who can win the scramble drill– will New England be able to cover when Wilson extends the play, or will his Receivers find a way to get open?

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The combination of two weeks to prepare and the simplicity of Seattle’s Defensive scheme should make for an interesting New England game plan. The 2012 Patriots vs. Seahawks game featured almost 60 throws for Tom Brady, a ton of empty formations and almost 400 yards passing (The most Seattle has given up in the Legion of Boom era). New England had success throwing underneath with various schemes including their Y-stick and slant/flat combinations.

On the other hand, if Seattle’s defense has any vulnerability, it’s that the Front 7 is slightly undersized and built on speed. New England could run right at the Seattle defense, as all of Seattle’s losses this season had their opponents rushing for 100 or more yards.

Overall, I anticipate New England will implement aspects of both game plans depending on down + distance and field position. Expect New England to swing back and forth between Empty sets and Power and Iso looks with multiple tight ends and Fullback James Develin (#46) isolated on Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (#54). Running the ball will also test Seahawks All-Pro Safety Earl Thomas (#29) injured shoulder. Because Seattle plays so simple schematically, New England could attack and keep Seattle off balance by making the Seahawks defend two completely different styles of football. It also gives the Patriots flexibility to adjust to the scoreboard.

Seattle’s elite pass defense has struggled against a few concepts this year, including Post-Wheel, Switch Verticals, and Seams paired with out and ups:

Courtesy of Matt Bowen (Bleacher Report)

These concepts all have something in common: It exploits the ultra aggressive nature of Seattle’s Cover 3, where Cornerbacks match vertical releases and essentially play man-to-man after 10 yards and also try to undercut seam routes. This puts immense pressure on the linebackers to carry wheel routes and double moves. Of course, Seattle will be well aware of this weakness. In order for New England to take advantage of it, the Patriots could include a play action wrinkle to freeze linebackers, as well as use Rob Gronkowski as a decoy. The play below is a perfect example: The top of the screen features Gronk running a seam route while Tight End Tim Wright (#81) runs a wheel route and is also wide open. If this type of play action can freeze linebackers, and Gronk draws the attention of the Deep 1/3 corner, the Patriots could find huge plays up the sideline:

The Patriots could also attack the seams, but must set up Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola underneath first. The Patriots certainly looked to the San Diego vs. Seattle tape for hints on how to attack Seattle. Many point to Antonio Gates 3 Touchdowns that day, but Danny Woodhead and Eddie Royal had 11 catches that day and provided crucial 3rd down conversions. In the 2012 Seattle/New England game Wes Welker came up with 10 catches for 138 yards and a TD. (Precedent for smaller, shiftier receivers succeeding against Seattle). The following play is a great example of how New England can isolate the Tight End via the Dakota formation, attack the seams, but also open up a versatile running back underneath for a big gain:

If the Patriots can get Earl Thomas and Cam Chancellor to come up to play the underneath routes from Vereen, Edelman, and Amendola, they will be able to attack the seams. In the play below, Safety Cam Chancellor freezes up for just a split second to cover Panthers Running Back Jonathan Stewart (#28) out of the back field, opening up the seam behind him:

Finally, as I’ve wrote about before, the Seahawks seem to move Richard Sherman inside to the slot when they feel the biggest receiving threat is there:

New England can find out early in the game if the Seahawks will move around Richard Sherman by putting Shane Vereen or Rob Gronkowski on the outside with Julian Edelman in the slot. What they will do with this matchup depends on if Edelman can beat Sherman consistently. This will be especially interesting given Sherman’s arm injury.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One interesting statistic of note: Seattle Punter Jon Ryan allowed the lowest number of punts returned this year, while Julian Edelman lead the league with 19.3 yards per return. Look for this strength vs. strength match up to be a key factor in field position and impact the game in a big way.

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WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The Colts are almost a new team on the offensive side of the ball; since the 42-20 loss to New England, Boom Herron (#36) has replaced Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at Running Back, Donte Moncrief (#10) has emerged as a go to Wide Receiver, Tight End Dwayne Allen (#83) is healthy, and future Hall of Fame WR Reggie Wayne (#87) has become severely hampered with a torn triceps and hobbled groin. Additionally, the Colts have swapped and replaced two new offensive lineman into the mix.

The Colts did an excellent job last week of protecting Andrew Luck against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, while the Patriots pass rush was abysmal against the Ravens, recording 0 sacks on 45 pass attempts. The Colts do not have a strong running game, so look for them to spread it out in Empty formations and use QB Andrew Luck as a run threat. The Patriots can counter this and improve their pass rush by using DE/LB Akeem Ayers (#55) more often. Ayers only played one snap against the Ravens, but this is because the Patriots stayed in base defense to counter the Ravens zone run offense. The Patriots will almost certainly be in Nickel/Sub-Packages more often this week and use Ayers as pass rusher as well as a coverage linebacker.

One of the most telling signs of New England’s defensive game-plan will be how Brandon Browner is used. Browner was hobbled with a knee injury last week, and was beat several times by the Ravens’ Torrey Smith. In the Week 11 matchup against the Colts, Browner spent plenty of time covering Browner, with poor results. It could be a big mistake to have Browner cover Fleener or Moncrief, as both looked like they could easily get open against Browner (Browner is matched up on the bottom of the screen both times):

Instead, it would probably be best to use Browner on Wide Receivers/Tight Ends who are less shifty in space, such as Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Allen caught a TD last week while boxing out Denver’s Aqib Talib, and Browner is the best match up to prevent this from happening.

In the Week 11 game, Darrelle Revis almost exclusively matched up against Reggie Wayne. With Wayne hobbled, it will likely be another Patriots Defensive Back. (Probably #26 Logan Ryan). Revis will be used in two ways throughout the game: On T.Y. Hilton, or on Donte Moncrief. When Revis is not on Hilton, expect the speedy Kyle Arrington (#25) to cover Hilton with some sort of Safety help.

Finally, expect the Colts to attack the Patriots Cover 1/Cover 3 schemes and preventing press coverage by bunching Receivers and using motion & crossing routes, as the Colts had some success with this in Week 11, and the Ravens certainly had success with this strategy last week:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots played a whopping 37 snaps in Week 11 with a 6th offensive lineman. The results were uncanny, with Jonas Gray running for over 200 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Expect New England to run the ball with success, but not nearly as much, for a few reasons: Colts DT Arthur Jones is back from an injury, and Patriots Center Bryan Stork is out with a knee injury this week. This shuffle on the offensive and defensive lines will make it less easy for New England to run the ball all over Indy.

Instead, expect New England to attack the Colts aggressive man-to-man defense more through the air this time around. Colts Safety Laron Landry (#30) matched up with Denver’s Julius Thomas last week. Patriots Rob Gronkowski is a tougher cover than Thomas, and the Patriots can exploit the matchup like the Broncos did:

Because of the Colts affinity for man coverage and blitzing, look for Patriots RB Shane Vereen (#34) to get loose on a big gain in the passing game. The Broncos had a perfect opportunity by aligning the Tight End and Running Back together at the top of the screen, but somehow Peyton Manning misses a wide open Running Back on the wheel route:

If Gronkowski is split out wide, the Patriots love the hitch route against off coverage. However, if the Colts play press coverage with Landry like they did against Denver, the Patriots will certainly look to cash in by pairing Landry and a Linebacker in coverage against Vereen and Gronkowski.

Colts Cornerback Vontae Davis (#21) also is a key player on the Colts Defense to watch for. Davis played an excellent game last week and shut down both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas at times. Expect him to match up against both Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, depending on down and distance. He could also occasionally be used to cover Gronkowski, but the Colts must be careful with this matchup, as Gronkowski is a viable run blocker. Tom Brady could see this matchup and check to a run play, leaving  Vontae Davis in the box against a lineman. The play below shows exactly why Shane Vereen may be the one in for a big game: He can play off how the Colts decide to treat Gronkowski and benefit in both the passing and running attack.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL:

Green Bay cut the field in half when they chose not to attack the right side of the field to avoid Richard Sherman Week 1; Green Bay aligned #11 Jarrett Boykin to the right on the vast majority of snaps. The Packers must attack all parts of the field in order to be successful this week.  While the Packers will almost certainly line up #87 Jordy Nelson to the right more often, the emergence of rookie #17 Davonte Adams gives Green Bay a viable threat even when Jordy Nelson is on the left side of the field. However, attacking the right side of the field doesn’t necessarily mean attacking Sherman 1 on 1. Look for Green Bay to manipulate formations to move Sherman away from the outside most Receiver. Dallas was able to do this from a Trips tight formation, with the TE as the lone eligible receiver to the left, and 3 Wideouts to the right:

Sherman moves with Dez Bryant to the slot

This formation moves Richard Sherman to the slot against Dez Bryant. The Packers Wide Receiving core is deeper than the Cowboys’ WRs, and this alignment would put the Seahawks in a bigger bind than against Dallas. If Seattle aligns Richard Sherman over Jordy Nelson in the slot, Sherman is not at his absolute best without the sideline as a defender. On the other hand, if Sherman stays to the outside, Green Bay can use #18 Randall Cobb, Adams or Nelson on the right side of the field without ever testing Sherman. This play results in a 20+ yard gain with the whole field to work with, and a penalty on Sherman:

The trips tight formation makes Seattle’s Cover 3 slightly more challenging to play. The play above is Cover 1, and Green Bay should try to exploit it like Dallas did. Another way Green Bay can attack the right side of the field is by splitting either Running Back #27 Eddie Lacy or #44 James Starks out wide with Randall Cobb in the slot right:

Sherman aligns against Welker in the slot with the RB to the outside

In the picture above, the Broncos place a Running Back out wide to move Sherman to the slot. If Green Bay can manipulate formations to get Randall Cobb on Sherman, especially in the slot, this is the most favorable matchup for Green Bay. Like other big corners, the hardest matchup isn’t necessarily the best or biggest Receiver; in fact, the shiftier, quicker types give Sherman slightly more trouble.

As for the running game, Green Bay must establish it early. Eddie Lacy was unable to finish the game Week 1 with a concussion, but his presence will be huge on Sunday. He started off the game gaining yardage while breaking tackles and being agile enough to juke out the best safety in the NFL, Earl Thomas; no small task:

Runs like this are essential for multiple reasons: Green Bay will probably spend 95% of the game in either Shotgun or Pistol due to Aaron Rodgers’ hurt calf. The Packers must be able to run the ball regardless. Lacy is a versatile back: he is a viable threat in the passing game, can run defenders over, and also can make defenders miss. Look for Lacy and Seattle’s Cam Chancellor (#31) to provide some of the hardest collisions the NFL has seen all year. If Lacy can stay healthy for the whole game, look for the Packers to improve on the 16 point output from Week 1.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL:

Seattle drove Green Bay crazy Week 1 with various versions of Jet Sweep and read option. However, with Percy Harvin long gone, Seattle will come up with new wrinkles to attack the Green Bay run defense. Green Bay’s run defense has improved greatly over the course of the season: Since Clay Matthews moved to Inside Linebacker, Green Bay is in the top-10 against the run. (GB was in the bottom 10 prior). Green Bay has also recently gotten major contributions out of Defensive Lineman #76 Mike Daniels in stopping the run. Daniels will sometimes be lined up against a hurting Max Unger (Seattle’s Center, #60) and could be the key to getting interior penetration against Seattle’s run game with efforts like this, causing Running Backs to hesitate and freeing up Clay Matthews from the middle:

This matchup is key and simply about execution, not X’s and O’s. Seattle will look to dominate the line of scrimmage and Daniels like in the Week 1 matchup:

Seattle will certainly use some read option, but look for them to use the split zone concept as well. Split zone may look like zone read and is meant to freeze linebackers, but the Quarterback is only a decoy as a running threat. It is blocked similar to Zone read in the sense that a defender is left unblocked at the snap of the ball and the Tackle can aggressively down block. However, a Tight End or fullback will come across the formation to block the defensive end or linebacker. The direction of the Running Back and the Quarterback’s action will make it look like Read Option, and create a natural crease for the blocker and the running back to cut back. Seen below is a Week 1 Split Zone run to perfection. Green Bay’s Clay Matthews (#52) plays this as zone read, only to be blocked completely out of the play by Luke Willson (#82) who is coming across the formation. Russell Wilson (#3) sells read option action, but is never actually a running threat:

Finally, when it comes to the passing game, look for the key matchup to be #56 Julius Peppers against banged up Rookie Right Tackle #68 Justin Britt. (If Britt can’t play due to injury, Alvin Bailey would be next in line). Peppers has been on fire recently, forcing fumbles from both Tony Romo and Demarco Murray last week. His pass rush ability must make Russell Wilson uncomfortable in the pocket.

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