Below, the Panthers line up in a trips set with their best Wide Receiver, D.J. Moore, on the backside before they motion the back out to 4×1 against a 2-high safety look. QB Sam Darnold reads Linebacker Micah Parsons (#11); if Parsons stays in the box, he’ll throw the swing screen. If Parsons vacates the box, Darnold has a numbers advantage for the QB draw:

Swing screen/Q draw pic.twitter.com/L7TJAVe2SH

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) October 4, 2021

Later in the season, Joe Brady dialed up an old play from his LSU days. The Panthers line up in trips and motion out the running back out again. This time, the QB draw is paired with a glance route from D.J. Moore. When the weakside Linebacker and Safety fly up to the QB draw, Cam Newton throws it over their heads for a Touchdown:

Q draw/glance RPO w/fast motion to 4×1 pic.twitter.com/ZNrg59tZCq

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 22, 2021

Motioning to Quads from the backfield forces defenses to communicate quickly and can be difficult to sift through. Below, the Texans motion to Quads and 3 Panthers go with the motion man–leaving the original outside WR #3 Anthony Miller wide open for an easy Touchdown:

Motion to 4 strong creates a miscommunication in the secondary pic.twitter.com/X4n7XZyqL6

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 24, 2021

In another example, the Jets simply do not react to the motion and the Titans get an easy score:

D with no response to the motion to 4 strong pic.twitter.com/5heOmoZKWV

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) October 5, 2021

Offenses have also effectively used the 4 strong side as eye candy to target the single pass catcher side. Below, the Saints are in a Trips Nub formation and the RB goes in fast motion. Multiple Green Bay defenders over shift to the motion, and the Saints throw a delayed Tight End screen to take advantage:

Motion to 4 strong w/nub TE. TE delay on 4th and 7 pic.twitter.com/iWDBZfu3ve

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 16, 2021

The Packers then run the very same play the next week!

-Trips nub (Davante @ 3)
-Fast motion to 4 strong
-TE delay screen pic.twitter.com/REvmgrd1Cp

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 21, 2021

Sean McVay and the Rams have been quite creative in window dressing in their Quads sets to execute simple plays. Below, Cooper Kupp lines up in the backfield and fast motions out to the trips side in an attempt to draw defenders away from the backside Tight End tunnel screen:

Kupp fast motions to make it 4 strong, tunnel screen the other way. More WRs in the backfield! pic.twitter.com/nW1Kr2sS1T

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 26, 2021

Here, because defenses often lock up the backside of 4×1 sets in man to man, the Rams are able to exploit defensive rules with a mesh concept. The goal is to allow speedster DeSean Jackson (#1), who is the second inside most WR, to attack a vacated area and catch the ball with a ton of space in front of him:

Rams running mesh out of 4×1 pic.twitter.com/Y3F9IAnVCo

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 28, 2021

Quads also forces defenses into tough choices and punishes double teams. Below, the Bears decide to commit two defenders to #19 Deebo Samuel, who is on the backside of the 4×1 set. The Bears have a 5 man box and 4 DBs over 4 WRs. #11 Brandon Aiyuk is able to take advantage of the matchup for a TD:

49ers running a 4×1 cheetah variation. Bears have 2 shaded to Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk is 1 on 1 pic.twitter.com/YqFYIhNbVP

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 24, 2021

Teams can even play with personnel to get playmakers in space. Below, the Cowboys have multiple tight ends and an extra OL out wide to escort CeeDee Lamb:

Cowboys with 2 TEs and an extra OL on the 4×1 quick screen pic.twitter.com/eGsMS12gFh

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 24, 2021

NFL offenses have finally adopted 4×1 sets as a regular part of their offenses. Offensive coordinators are creatively using 4×1’s structural advantages to get their playmakers in space and exploit matchups. 

The post Connect 4: The NFL’s 4×1 Quads Renaissance appeared first on Syed Schemes.

Eagles

The Eagles used running back motion, the wheel route, and the mesh concept repeatedly to take advantage of the Patriots decision to predominantly play man to man coverage. The Patriots were weak against pass catching running backs all year, particularly wheel routes. In the AFC Championship, Jacksonville missed their opportunity multiple times to hit an open running back against a linebacker or peeling defensive end; but the Eagles cashed in.

2nd Quarter, 1:46, 3rd & 3 on Phi 37 (Phi 15 NE 12)

Late in the first half, the Eagles make a huge play using both the mesh concept and the wheel route. Defensively, the Patriots are in Cover 1:

The Patriots have it covered well, but Jordan Richards (#37) takes a bad angle on the wheel route, leading to an easy throw for a huge gain. The angle below shows Richards could have gone over the sit route and been in position to make a tackle before the first down marker, instead of shooting underneath. Of course, if Malcolm Butler was on the field, Richards probably wouldn’t have been:

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This won’t be the first time the Eagles use these concepts to beat the Patriots D. In fact, this particular play ends up being key for a fourth down conversion late in the game.

3rd Quarter, 7:25, 3rd & 6 on NE 22 (Phi 22 NE 19)

In the middle of the third, the Eagles use return motion as a coverage indicator; once #59 linebacker Marquis Flowers motions in with running back Corey Clement, Nick Foles knows its man to man coverage. The Eagles are running a drive concept with Clement’s wheel route behind it from the backfield. The Patriots are playing man to man with a free safety in centerfield. They are also doubling Zach Ertz; (#37) Jordan Richards has any in breaking routes, while (#32) Devin McCourty has any out breaking routes:

The Eagles end up getting a speedy running back on a linebacker. Foles has plenty of time  and delivers perhaps his best throw of the day for a touchdown. Meanwhile, the free safety is too far to make an impact on the wheel, and McCourty hesitates ever so slightly, flips his hips the wrong way, and is unable to make a play on the ball:

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4th Quarter, 6:10, 4th & 1 on Phi 45 (NE 33 Phi 32)

The Eagles wouldn’t have had the opportunity for the go-ahead touchdown had it not been for a fourth down conversion in their own territory earlier in the drive. Earlier in the game, the Eagles gashed the Patriots with two huge passes to running back Corey Clement, analyzed above. The Eagles come back to the mesh concept on this critical fourth down. The Patriots are in man to man coverage, middle linebacker Kyle Van Noy blitzes, safety Duron Harmon is a “robber” in the box, and outside linebacker James Harrison has peel responsibility if the running back has a route. The Eagles mesh works perfectly, and Ertz is able to get free:

However, Patriots safety Duron Harmon is still in great position to make a play on Ertz. This is where the Eagles previous success on wheel routes to Clement comes into play; Harmon hesitates ever so slightly to the wheel, leaving enough space for Foles to complete the ball to Ertz for a crucial first down.

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4th Quarter, 2:25, 3rd & 7 on NE 11 (NE 33 Phi 32)

On perhaps the most important play of Super Bowl 52, Pederson used motion to out-formation the Patriots and get exactly the matchup he was looking for: tight end Zack Ertz in 1 on 1 coverage. Pre-snap, the Eagles come out in bunch trips right, running back Corey Clement offset left, and Ertz wide left. The Patriots are playing man-to-man on the trips, but importantly, safety Duron Harmon can help Devin McCourty, currently lined up on Ertz, and take away any in breaking route. The Patriots would handle Clement out of the backfield with James Harrison peeling off to the flat:

However, when Clement fast motions from the backfield to the trips, the Patriots are completely outflanked and Harmon is forced to match him. This leaves McCourty on an island with Ertz at the very last second, and the rest is history:

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While Pederson called a near perfect game, Josh McDaniels was just as good. The Patriots, more than any other team, use movement before the snap as coverage indicators. Super Bowl 52 was no exception:

Patriots

1st Quarter, 1:41, 3rd & 7 on NE 21

Before the snap, the Patriots motion in James White to the backfield. By this time, the Patriots know the Eagles are matching up safety Malcolm Jenkins (#27) with White. Jenkins follows White, but the Eagles could still plausibly be in a variety of coverages. The Patriots go one step further and have receivers Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks switch places. When the Eagles defenders don’t move, Tom Brady knows its zone coverage:

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A side note, most analysts expected Malcolm Jenkins to match up with Gronk. Given that James White had 14 catches in Super Bowl 51 and Shane Vereen had 11 catches in Super Bowl 49, it made sense that the Eagles decided they’d try to limit James White. The move was effective; after the first drive White didn’t have a single catch.

2nd Quarter, 2:55, 2nd & 10 on NE 31

Down 15-6 with just under 3 minutes in the first half, the Patriots get a one on one matchup they unquestionably circled before the game; Eagles cornerback #31 Jalen Mills in man to man off coverage. Mills has struggled with double moves in this scenario throughout the year, (top of screen in first clip, bottom of screen in second clip):

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This time is no different. Chris Hogan is matched up with Jalen Mills at the bottom of the screen, in off coverage, with no deep half help. He runs a curl and go for a huge gain:

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3rd Quarter, 3:29, 1st & 10 on Phi 26

Down 10, the Patriots began the second half by attacking with seam routes. They also took advantage of a bit of confusion in alignment; in the NFC Championship game, when a non-pass catching back (Latavius Murray) split out wide, the Eagles were confused and gave up a wide open touchdown:

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Below, Patriots fullback James Develin is highlighted at the top of the screen. When he lines up out wide, the Eagles are confused on coverage assignments. Meanwhile, the play call is double seams with Gronkowski and Hogan:

This becomes a big play because of three factors: First, the Eagles pre-snap confusion causes Malcolm Jenkins (free safety, highlighted above) to keep his eyes solely on Gronkowski as opposed to playing deep middle. Next, Tom Brady’s eyes hold Jenkins toward Gronkowski’s side. Watch Brady’s eyes flip to Hogan just before the throw. Third, Chris Hogan expands his seam route to the wide side of the field, creating more room for the throw:

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Finally, it’s impossible to do a full review of Super Bowl 52 without mentioning “Philly Special,” the throwback pass the Eagles used to score right before the end of the first half:

Shot 13 – “Philly Special” … one of the most legendary moments in Philly Sports History. So much to love about this play….the design, the call, the timing, the execution. Foles reels in the TD from Trey Burton #FlyEaglesFly #SBLII pic.twitter.com/VU0zg76dKV

— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) February 7, 2018

It was a great play call and design, but there’s more: the Patriots ran the same play the last time they played the Eagles in 2015:

“Philly Special” 2015 Pats vs Eagles. We’ve seen this before. pic.twitter.com/KRmhYG55ld

— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) February 8, 2018

It may have been in the playbook already, but it’s also possible Philly added it specifically for this game after reviewing that film. For those looking to add this play to the playbook, make sure you know the rules; in the NFL, the quarterback must be in the shotgun, or he is not eligible to catch a pass. There is no such rule in college:

Now Baker Mayfield is out here catching TDs too pic.twitter.com/S3esgz4L9s

— 2018 NFL Draft (@DraftRT) January 1, 2018

The post Super Bowl 52 X’s & O’s Review appeared first on Syed Schemes.

2nd Quarter, 4:06, 2nd & Goal at the 6:

On all 3 Touchdowns in the four Tight End set, #88 Scott Chandler is paired with #87 Rob Gronkowski (the pass catchers), while #47 “Hooman” is paired with #85 Mike Williams. The first time the Steelers see the formation, their Front 7 is in Bear with 2 Safeties and 2 Cornerbacks in man to man coverage behind it. The Patriots check to a stretch play action  2 man route with Gronkowski running a seam route and Chandler expanding to the back pylon:

Gronk is able to beat his man, who is frozen by a stretch play action. Steelers Safety Mike Mitchell (#23) attempts to peel back to Gronkowski after his man stays in protection, but is too late. Below are the End Zone and Field angles of the Touchdown:

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3rd Quarter, 11:17, 2nd & Goal at the 1:

The second time New England comes out with four Tight Ends, the Steelers respond with their Goal Line personnel, with only 1 Defensive Back on the field. To start, #88 Scott Chandler is in the backfield as a Fullback. Prior to the snap, #47 Hooman shifts out wide to the right, taking the only Steeler Defensive Back with him. From there, Gronkowski and Chandler shift to the left:

With only 1 Defensive Back on the field, the Steelers shift out 2 linebackers to match up man to man with Gronkowski and Chandler. This is a mismatch Tom Brady will exploit 100% of the time. On the second TD from the four tight end set, the Patriots run a Slant-Flat combination:

Below is the Field All-22 angle for the 2nd Touchdown:

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4th Quarter, 9:28, 3rd & Goal at the 1:

On the final four tight end play of the night, the Patriots start with the same shift as the prior Touchdown. The Steelers respond with the same exact personnel grouping. From the 1 yard line, there isn’t much choice but to play this type of heavy personnel. However, going forward, it will be interesting to see how opposing defenses match up with the four Tight End look from the 5 or 10 yard line. This time, the Patriots run a fade to Gronkowski for his 3rd TD of the night (with Chandler once again running to the flat):

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Chess Match Going Forward

Future Patriots opponents have this tape to watch and may approach the four Tight End set differently. The first thing the defense could do is match linebackers to #47 Hooman and #85 Mike Williams side, while keeping better pass defenders (Safeties) on to Gronkowski’s side. Personnel choice will be key; is the best way to match up 3 Safeties to counter four Tight Ends? Teams will certainly live with either Hooman or Williams beating them in the pass game. Defenses can also counter by moving an extra defender out to make it 3 defenders over Chandler and Gronkowski. In Week 1, the Steelers covered all Tight Ends who shifted out with man to man coverage:

Bringing out an another defender toward Gronk/Chandler would help the pass defense, but would help the Patriots run game near the Goal Line immensely by lightening the box to 7 vs. 7. Defenses may choose this strategy inside the 10 yard line and dare the Patriots to run the ball in the red zone with a young offensive line.

The Patriots likely have only shown the tip of the iceberg with respect to the four Tight End, or “Aces” formation. Look for them to have several formational and motion variations as well as run a variety of plays from the personnel grouping. This formation may only have come about when Fullback James Develin was lost for the season, allowing for the coaching staff to come up with creative ways to use Tight Ends in the red zone.

If defenses do over commit to the pass against “Aces”, New England could split out Gronk and Scott Chandler to different sides of the formation as 6’6″+ fade targets. The Patriots could also put defenses in a bind by having Chandler, Hooman, and Williams to one side as a run heavy side with Gronk split out wide on the opposite side. This would force defenses to commit numbers to the run heavy side or leave Gronk 1 on 1. Either way, I look forward to the four Tight End look being used by New England in the red zone throughout the season.

WEEK 2 UPDATE

The Patriots cashed in again on the Goal Line with their 4 TE set week 2 against the Bills. Below, the Patriots show a similar shift causing confusion in the Bills secondary. This time, Gronkowski runs a short Dig route, with Chandler running a pivot. Gronkowski finds himself open in the back of the end zone:

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Later in the game, the Patriots go back to the 4 TE set on the Goal Line, this time separating Chandler and Gronkowski to opposite sides. Gronkowski is double teamed on the bottom, and the Patriots get the 1 on 1 matchup they want, but the Bills break up the play:

[gfycat data_id="PlushSoftGorilla" data_autoplay=false data_controls=true data_title=false data_expand=true]

Week 5 Update

The Patriots have traded away Tight End #47 Michael Hoomanawanui to the Saints. If the Patriots continue the 4 TE set, look for Tackle #77 Nate Solder to play as a TE on the goal line, as he played some TE in college and was used as an extra lineman/TE his rookie year.

The post Patriots Four Tight End Red Zone Attack appeared first on Syed Schemes.

The Patriots Super Bowl 49 game plan began as expected, with New England lining up Tight End Rob Gronkowski extremely far out wide in order to see how Seattle would respond. The Patriots then motioned Julian Edelman across to the slot. This first play would give New England a ton of coverage information for a Touchdown later in the game:

Seattle occasionally moved Richard Sherman into the slot when they felt the Offense’s biggest threat was there, or when either a Tight End or Running back was the furthest outside Receiver. By lining up Gronk out extra wide and motioning Edelman, the Patriots were able to gather information even before running a play. First, the Patriots knew the Seahawks were willing to play against Gronk and the wide side of the field with only one defender, as deep 1/3 defender Kam Chancellor (Safety #31) is essentially in the middle of the field. The Patriots also see the Seahawks Cover 3 “Buzz” or Cover 1 “Lurk” drop down zone defender (In this case, #29 Safety Earl Thomas) playing towards the original 3 Receiver side and where Running Back Shane Vereen is. This last part regarding Shane Vereen will come in key later in the 1st half.

Vereen tied the Super Bowl record with 11 catches and converted key 3rd downs throughout the game. His biggest impact, however, may have been as a decoy on Gronk’s Touchdown before the 1st half. The Seahawks alternated their drop down Lurk/Buzz defender throughout the half between Chancellor and Thomas as well as to and away from Vereen. But Vereen had just gashed the Seahawks for a big catch and run, Julian Edelman had burnt backup Seahawks Cornerback Tharold Simon (#27) on the previous drive, and Gronkowski was unable to beat Kam Chancellor deep earlier in the game. With that, the Patriots lined up in Dakota formation, and Shane Vereen away from the Trips. The Seahawks were clearly in Cover 1 now, as Linebacker K.J. Wright lined up over Gronk in man technique, and Richard Sherman followed Julian Edelman across the formation. From here, all QB Tom Brady needed to know was who was the Deep Centerfield Safety, and who was the drop down Lurk Safety. It’s fairly easy to tell right before the snap that Kam Chancellor will be the deep middle defender towards the Trips side:

Once the ball is snapped, Earl Thomas flies down and only has his eyes on Vereen. Thomas doesn’t hesitate at all or pay any attention to Gronk, who is now truly 1 on 1 with K.J. Wright:

Brady almost certainly decided to go deep to Gronk on a Stutter-Fade route as soon as Earl Thomas took a step up pre-snap:

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It also appears that Linebacker Bobby Wagner has his eyes on Vereen out of the backfield. Given that it was 2nd and 5 with 36 seconds left, Seattle could have been calling for bracket coverage to prevent Vereen from picking up the first down and setting a trap for Brady. It’s also possible that Earl Thomas had seen enough of Vereen underneath and decided to fly up to make a quick tackle or even interception. Either way, Vereen served as a perfect decoy to exploit the 1 on 1 matchup the Patriots wanted.

Play Action on Slant-Flat leads to LaFell TD

The Patriots love their Slant-Flat combo, and ran it numerous times in the 2012 matchup against the Seahawks. Super Bowl 49 was no different, as New England went to Slant-Flat at least 5 times. I thought New England would go to its usual Cover 3 beaters with Play Action to help freeze linebackers, and this is exactly what happened.

With Danny Amendola clearing out Byron Maxwell on the flat route, the Slant route is open for a Touchdown, with only Bobby Wagner or Earl Thomas (squared in red above) in position to break up or drive on the route. However, the Play Action fake keeps their eyes in the backfield and freezes both players for a fraction of a second. The Play Action by no means “fools” Wagner or Thomas, but even a tenth of a second is the difference here, as you can see just how close Wagner gets to tipping the throw, and how Thomas may be able to jar the ball loose with a big hit:

New England’s Pass Heavy Playsheet

The Patriots ended up throwing the ball 50 times, but I don’t think this was the plan prior to the game. New England ran the ball with LeGarrette Blount 8 times in the first 13 minutes of the game, but only 6 times total in the last 47 minutes. The heavy tilt towards passing likely had to do with the gruesome forearm injury to Seattle Nickel Cornerback Jeremy Lane. After Lane got hurt, Byron Maxwell was moved into the slot, and #27 Tharold Simon was forced into action. The Patriots started with a more simple game plan, but as they seemingly always do, changed the plan on the fly: Just as they did against the Ravens left side of the Secondary, the Patriots decided to attack Simon, attack him mercilessly and often. The results were undeniable:

With all that, the Patriots brought back Lombardy Trophy #4 to Foxboro.

The post Analyzing how the Patriots Offense Manipulated Matchups in SB49 appeared first on Syed Schemes.

Butler attacked and drove hard downhill to make the interception. After the game, he eluded to the fact that his decisiveness in going for the interception was based on him anticipating the route combination/pick play from film study. He also said he had been beaten by the route in practice during that week.

With that in mind, I reviewed the last 12 weeks of Seattle’s season to get a better idea of what Butler would have watched prior to the game in order to react so instinctively to what he saw. I compiled any passing play with either a stack formation or a Wide Receiver running a slant or drag underneath another Wide Receiver:

The question is how many undrafted rookie free agents playing in the crucial final seconds of the Super Bowl would have studied enough to know what Seattle liked to run out of the Stack formation/Short Yardage, been able to recall enough of the film study exactly when needed, AND been decisive enough to go all out for the interception. The lesson? Film study pays off: it might make you famous one day.

The post How Malcolm Butler knew what Play was Coming on the Interception that Changed NFL History appeared first on Syed Schemes.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

The zone run game has given the Patriots problems, most recently against Baltimore in the Divisional Round (24 carries for 129 yards). While Seattle primarily runs zone, they use more inside zone and cut defensive lineman less efficiently. Most teams who run the football well have a dominant offensive line; but this isn’t the case for Seattle. Marshawn Lynch’s “beast mode” runs overshadow the fact that the Seahawks offensive line isn’t overly powerful or big.

The Seahawks will likely see a variety of Front-7 looks from the Patriots, including a true 3-4, with Vince Wilfork (#75) playing a 0 technique, Alan Branch (#97) and Sealver Siliga (#96) at Defensive End, Rob Ninkovich (#50) and Chandler Jones (#95) at Outside Linebacker, and Jamie Collins (#91) and Dont’a Hightower (#54) at Inside Linebacker. Look for (#55) Akeem Ayers to also play some outside linebacker in this look. This defensive front gives both teams advantages: While the 3-4 gives the Patriots both athleticism and versatility with 4 linebackers as well as over 1,000 pounds of stout mass on the defensive line against the run, it undoubtedly sacrifices the ability to get any pass rush against Russell Wilson.

The chess game will be particularly important when the Seahawks are in the Shotgun. Because the zone read such a dangerous threat, how the Patriots respond to it will be crucial to the outcome of the game. Expect the Patriots to take away Russell Wilson on the zone read and make him hand the ball off nearly every time. The first way this can be done is the feather technique. Below is an example of the feather technique, where the last defender on the line of scrimmage (#58 Thomas Davis) makes Russell Wilson hand the ball off by slow playing the read. Meanwhile, all the defensive lineman rip to their right hard, making all gaps accounted for. Once Marshawn Lynch has the ball, Davis can fill in the last gap for a one yard gain. (This is against a 4-6 Bear look, which the Seahawks may also see.)

The problem with feathering or slow playing the Zone Read is that it can leave the last defender on the line of scrimmage in a passive position. It also leaves him susceptible to concepts, such as split zone (seen below) that look like zone read, but take advantage of the feather technique’s passiveness:

What the Patriots could also do is aggressively take away the QB run option from Russell Wilson by flying fast downhill and making Wilson make a read quickly. Below isn’t the same exact type of play, (Counter vs. Zone) but Terrell Suggs (#55 on Baltimore) shows how playing fast downhill at the Quarterback can disrupt plays as the unblocked last defender on the line of scrimmage:

Seattle could respond to this type of approach from the Patriots by moving to a double tight end set, making it more difficult for the defense to keep a defender outside of the Tight End, and making it more difficult to play the zone read aggressively. The look below gives Seattle 9 in the box against Carolina’s 7, and the Defensive End let’s Wilson get outside because he does not attack Russell Wilson’s outside shoulder:

With respect to the passing game, expect Darrelle Revis to match up primarily with Doug Baldwin and follow him around the field. Brandon Browner will likely cover Jermaine Kearse (#15) for some of the game, but also expect designated T.Y. Hilton stopper (#25) Kyle Arrington to get some time matched up against the speedy Kearse with Safety help. When Arrington is on Kearse, this could leave Browner to cover speedy Seahawk Tight End Luke Willson (#82).

The Seattle passing game vs. the Patriots secondary isn’t necessarily about X’s and O’s, but a game of attrition: the Patriots will likely sell out to the stop the run and try and contain Russell Wilson instead of outright rushing him. The Patriots secondary is able to cover for long periods of time, while Russell Wilson is excellent extending plays and finding open Wide Receivers. This is a strength on strength, and will likely decide the game: who can win the scramble drill– will New England be able to cover when Wilson extends the play, or will his Receivers find a way to get open?

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The combination of two weeks to prepare and the simplicity of Seattle’s Defensive scheme should make for an interesting New England game plan. The 2012 Patriots vs. Seahawks game featured almost 60 throws for Tom Brady, a ton of empty formations and almost 400 yards passing (The most Seattle has given up in the Legion of Boom era). New England had success throwing underneath with various schemes including their Y-stick and slant/flat combinations.

On the other hand, if Seattle’s defense has any vulnerability, it’s that the Front 7 is slightly undersized and built on speed. New England could run right at the Seattle defense, as all of Seattle’s losses this season had their opponents rushing for 100 or more yards.

Overall, I anticipate New England will implement aspects of both game plans depending on down + distance and field position. Expect New England to swing back and forth between Empty sets and Power and Iso looks with multiple tight ends and Fullback James Develin (#46) isolated on Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (#54). Running the ball will also test Seahawks All-Pro Safety Earl Thomas (#29) injured shoulder. Because Seattle plays so simple schematically, New England could attack and keep Seattle off balance by making the Seahawks defend two completely different styles of football. It also gives the Patriots flexibility to adjust to the scoreboard.

Seattle’s elite pass defense has struggled against a few concepts this year, including Post-Wheel, Switch Verticals, and Seams paired with out and ups:

Courtesy of Matt Bowen (Bleacher Report)

These concepts all have something in common: It exploits the ultra aggressive nature of Seattle’s Cover 3, where Cornerbacks match vertical releases and essentially play man-to-man after 10 yards and also try to undercut seam routes. This puts immense pressure on the linebackers to carry wheel routes and double moves. Of course, Seattle will be well aware of this weakness. In order for New England to take advantage of it, the Patriots could include a play action wrinkle to freeze linebackers, as well as use Rob Gronkowski as a decoy. The play below is a perfect example: The top of the screen features Gronk running a seam route while Tight End Tim Wright (#81) runs a wheel route and is also wide open. If this type of play action can freeze linebackers, and Gronk draws the attention of the Deep 1/3 corner, the Patriots could find huge plays up the sideline:

The Patriots could also attack the seams, but must set up Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola underneath first. The Patriots certainly looked to the San Diego vs. Seattle tape for hints on how to attack Seattle. Many point to Antonio Gates 3 Touchdowns that day, but Danny Woodhead and Eddie Royal had 11 catches that day and provided crucial 3rd down conversions. In the 2012 Seattle/New England game Wes Welker came up with 10 catches for 138 yards and a TD. (Precedent for smaller, shiftier receivers succeeding against Seattle). The following play is a great example of how New England can isolate the Tight End via the Dakota formation, attack the seams, but also open up a versatile running back underneath for a big gain:

If the Patriots can get Earl Thomas and Cam Chancellor to come up to play the underneath routes from Vereen, Edelman, and Amendola, they will be able to attack the seams. In the play below, Safety Cam Chancellor freezes up for just a split second to cover Panthers Running Back Jonathan Stewart (#28) out of the back field, opening up the seam behind him:

Finally, as I’ve wrote about before, the Seahawks seem to move Richard Sherman inside to the slot when they feel the biggest receiving threat is there:

New England can find out early in the game if the Seahawks will move around Richard Sherman by putting Shane Vereen or Rob Gronkowski on the outside with Julian Edelman in the slot. What they will do with this matchup depends on if Edelman can beat Sherman consistently. This will be especially interesting given Sherman’s arm injury.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One interesting statistic of note: Seattle Punter Jon Ryan allowed the lowest number of punts returned this year, while Julian Edelman lead the league with 19.3 yards per return. Look for this strength vs. strength match up to be a key factor in field position and impact the game in a big way.

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WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The Colts are almost a new team on the offensive side of the ball; since the 42-20 loss to New England, Boom Herron (#36) has replaced Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at Running Back, Donte Moncrief (#10) has emerged as a go to Wide Receiver, Tight End Dwayne Allen (#83) is healthy, and future Hall of Fame WR Reggie Wayne (#87) has become severely hampered with a torn triceps and hobbled groin. Additionally, the Colts have swapped and replaced two new offensive lineman into the mix.

The Colts did an excellent job last week of protecting Andrew Luck against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, while the Patriots pass rush was abysmal against the Ravens, recording 0 sacks on 45 pass attempts. The Colts do not have a strong running game, so look for them to spread it out in Empty formations and use QB Andrew Luck as a run threat. The Patriots can counter this and improve their pass rush by using DE/LB Akeem Ayers (#55) more often. Ayers only played one snap against the Ravens, but this is because the Patriots stayed in base defense to counter the Ravens zone run offense. The Patriots will almost certainly be in Nickel/Sub-Packages more often this week and use Ayers as pass rusher as well as a coverage linebacker.

One of the most telling signs of New England’s defensive game-plan will be how Brandon Browner is used. Browner was hobbled with a knee injury last week, and was beat several times by the Ravens’ Torrey Smith. In the Week 11 matchup against the Colts, Browner spent plenty of time covering Browner, with poor results. It could be a big mistake to have Browner cover Fleener or Moncrief, as both looked like they could easily get open against Browner (Browner is matched up on the bottom of the screen both times):

Instead, it would probably be best to use Browner on Wide Receivers/Tight Ends who are less shifty in space, such as Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen. Allen caught a TD last week while boxing out Denver’s Aqib Talib, and Browner is the best match up to prevent this from happening.

In the Week 11 game, Darrelle Revis almost exclusively matched up against Reggie Wayne. With Wayne hobbled, it will likely be another Patriots Defensive Back. (Probably #26 Logan Ryan). Revis will be used in two ways throughout the game: On T.Y. Hilton, or on Donte Moncrief. When Revis is not on Hilton, expect the speedy Kyle Arrington (#25) to cover Hilton with some sort of Safety help.

Finally, expect the Colts to attack the Patriots Cover 1/Cover 3 schemes and preventing press coverage by bunching Receivers and using motion & crossing routes, as the Colts had some success with this in Week 11, and the Ravens certainly had success with this strategy last week:

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots played a whopping 37 snaps in Week 11 with a 6th offensive lineman. The results were uncanny, with Jonas Gray running for over 200 yards and 4 Touchdowns. Expect New England to run the ball with success, but not nearly as much, for a few reasons: Colts DT Arthur Jones is back from an injury, and Patriots Center Bryan Stork is out with a knee injury this week. This shuffle on the offensive and defensive lines will make it less easy for New England to run the ball all over Indy.

Instead, expect New England to attack the Colts aggressive man-to-man defense more through the air this time around. Colts Safety Laron Landry (#30) matched up with Denver’s Julius Thomas last week. Patriots Rob Gronkowski is a tougher cover than Thomas, and the Patriots can exploit the matchup like the Broncos did:

Because of the Colts affinity for man coverage and blitzing, look for Patriots RB Shane Vereen (#34) to get loose on a big gain in the passing game. The Broncos had a perfect opportunity by aligning the Tight End and Running Back together at the top of the screen, but somehow Peyton Manning misses a wide open Running Back on the wheel route:

If Gronkowski is split out wide, the Patriots love the hitch route against off coverage. However, if the Colts play press coverage with Landry like they did against Denver, the Patriots will certainly look to cash in by pairing Landry and a Linebacker in coverage against Vereen and Gronkowski.

Colts Cornerback Vontae Davis (#21) also is a key player on the Colts Defense to watch for. Davis played an excellent game last week and shut down both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas at times. Expect him to match up against both Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, depending on down and distance. He could also occasionally be used to cover Gronkowski, but the Colts must be careful with this matchup, as Gronkowski is a viable run blocker. Tom Brady could see this matchup and check to a run play, leaving  Vontae Davis in the box against a lineman. The play below shows exactly why Shane Vereen may be the one in for a big game: He can play off how the Colts decide to treat Gronkowski and benefit in both the passing and running attack.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL:

Green Bay cut the field in half when they chose not to attack the right side of the field to avoid Richard Sherman Week 1; Green Bay aligned #11 Jarrett Boykin to the right on the vast majority of snaps. The Packers must attack all parts of the field in order to be successful this week.  While the Packers will almost certainly line up #87 Jordy Nelson to the right more often, the emergence of rookie #17 Davonte Adams gives Green Bay a viable threat even when Jordy Nelson is on the left side of the field. However, attacking the right side of the field doesn’t necessarily mean attacking Sherman 1 on 1. Look for Green Bay to manipulate formations to move Sherman away from the outside most Receiver. Dallas was able to do this from a Trips tight formation, with the TE as the lone eligible receiver to the left, and 3 Wideouts to the right:

Sherman moves with Dez Bryant to the slot

This formation moves Richard Sherman to the slot against Dez Bryant. The Packers Wide Receiving core is deeper than the Cowboys’ WRs, and this alignment would put the Seahawks in a bigger bind than against Dallas. If Seattle aligns Richard Sherman over Jordy Nelson in the slot, Sherman is not at his absolute best without the sideline as a defender. On the other hand, if Sherman stays to the outside, Green Bay can use #18 Randall Cobb, Adams or Nelson on the right side of the field without ever testing Sherman. This play results in a 20+ yard gain with the whole field to work with, and a penalty on Sherman:

The trips tight formation makes Seattle’s Cover 3 slightly more challenging to play. The play above is Cover 1, and Green Bay should try to exploit it like Dallas did. Another way Green Bay can attack the right side of the field is by splitting either Running Back #27 Eddie Lacy or #44 James Starks out wide with Randall Cobb in the slot right:

Sherman aligns against Welker in the slot with the RB to the outside

In the picture above, the Broncos place a Running Back out wide to move Sherman to the slot. If Green Bay can manipulate formations to get Randall Cobb on Sherman, especially in the slot, this is the most favorable matchup for Green Bay. Like other big corners, the hardest matchup isn’t necessarily the best or biggest Receiver; in fact, the shiftier, quicker types give Sherman slightly more trouble.

As for the running game, Green Bay must establish it early. Eddie Lacy was unable to finish the game Week 1 with a concussion, but his presence will be huge on Sunday. He started off the game gaining yardage while breaking tackles and being agile enough to juke out the best safety in the NFL, Earl Thomas; no small task:

Runs like this are essential for multiple reasons: Green Bay will probably spend 95% of the game in either Shotgun or Pistol due to Aaron Rodgers’ hurt calf. The Packers must be able to run the ball regardless. Lacy is a versatile back: he is a viable threat in the passing game, can run defenders over, and also can make defenders miss. Look for Lacy and Seattle’s Cam Chancellor (#31) to provide some of the hardest collisions the NFL has seen all year. If Lacy can stay healthy for the whole game, look for the Packers to improve on the 16 point output from Week 1.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL:

Seattle drove Green Bay crazy Week 1 with various versions of Jet Sweep and read option. However, with Percy Harvin long gone, Seattle will come up with new wrinkles to attack the Green Bay run defense. Green Bay’s run defense has improved greatly over the course of the season: Since Clay Matthews moved to Inside Linebacker, Green Bay is in the top-10 against the run. (GB was in the bottom 10 prior). Green Bay has also recently gotten major contributions out of Defensive Lineman #76 Mike Daniels in stopping the run. Daniels will sometimes be lined up against a hurting Max Unger (Seattle’s Center, #60) and could be the key to getting interior penetration against Seattle’s run game with efforts like this, causing Running Backs to hesitate and freeing up Clay Matthews from the middle:

This matchup is key and simply about execution, not X’s and O’s. Seattle will look to dominate the line of scrimmage and Daniels like in the Week 1 matchup:

Seattle will certainly use some read option, but look for them to use the split zone concept as well. Split zone may look like zone read and is meant to freeze linebackers, but the Quarterback is only a decoy as a running threat. It is blocked similar to Zone read in the sense that a defender is left unblocked at the snap of the ball and the Tackle can aggressively down block. However, a Tight End or fullback will come across the formation to block the defensive end or linebacker. The direction of the Running Back and the Quarterback’s action will make it look like Read Option, and create a natural crease for the blocker and the running back to cut back. Seen below is a Week 1 Split Zone run to perfection. Green Bay’s Clay Matthews (#52) plays this as zone read, only to be blocked completely out of the play by Luke Willson (#82) who is coming across the formation. Russell Wilson (#3) sells read option action, but is never actually a running threat:

Finally, when it comes to the passing game, look for the key matchup to be #56 Julius Peppers against banged up Rookie Right Tackle #68 Justin Britt. (If Britt can’t play due to injury, Alvin Bailey would be next in line). Peppers has been on fire recently, forcing fumbles from both Tony Romo and Demarco Murray last week. His pass rush ability must make Russell Wilson uncomfortable in the pocket.

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WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL 

In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.

Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary

The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.

With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:

When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:

While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.

The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).

As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).

One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.

 WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL 

The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).

Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):

However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:

The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:

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If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:

Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.

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Note that #74 is not actually an eligible Receiver on the play, because the Receiver outside of him, #2, is on the line of scrimmage. #2 is “covering” #74, and #74 therefore cannot be illegally down field at the time of the pass. (He is ineligible) However, the Tight End noted in the picture IS eligible, although he is lined up traditionally where a Tackle would be. He is eligible because he is the first “uncovered” player on the line of scrimmage. This means no player outside of him is on the line of scrimmage. Alabama then shifts, with the Running Back moving from the backfield to the outside Receiver spot, and All-American Wide Receiver Amari Cooper moving a few steps toward the sideline. This seems to cause a bit of confusion in the LSU secondary, as they are unsure how to handle the formation:

The LSU defenders communicate how to handle the formation, but nobody appears to notice there is an eligible Tight End.  As you can see from the freeze-frame below, all 11 LSU defenders are accounted for, with nobody paying attention to the Tight End. There are 4 Defensive Lineman to rush the passer, 3 Defensive Back’s and 1 Linebacker focused on the 3 Alabama players at the bottom of the screen (including ineligible #74) (Red Rectangle), and 3 Defensive Backs focused on Cooper and the Running Back who shifted (Red Triangle). Before the LSU coaching staff can intervene, Alabama snaps the ball. Here are the Alabama routes with the focus of the LSU defenders highlighted:

As you can see, out of sheer pre-snap alignment, the LSU defenders are completely out of position to defend the Tight End’s route. Once the ball is snapped, you can see this unfold as LSU double teams Amari Cooper, leaving the middle of the field wide open:

LSU’s #4 has his back completely turned, and the LSU Defensive End is too late to realize the Tight End is eligible. Alabama Quarterback Blake Sims doesn’t even set his feet because the Tight End is so wide open. With only 25 yards to score in OT, this is a backbreaking play for the LSU Defense. Alabama scores a few plays later, and eventually wins the game. The video below shows how the entire play unfolds:

Alabama Offensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin deserves plenty of credit here. The play was called at the perfect time: the start of overtime, where players are coming from the sideline.  From there, Alabama executed the play quickly. If they had not, the LSU coaching staff would have likely called Timeout, or the LSU defenders would have figured out what Alabama was doing. This is something unique Kiffin brings to Alabama: under previous Alabama coaching staffs, I had not seen anything like what Kiffin called to begin Overtime.

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